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Deflationary financial shocks and inflationary uncertainty shocks: an SVAR Investigation

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  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Van der Veken, Wouter

Abstract

What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to un-certainty shocks, firms increase their markups, in line with the theory of self-insurance against being stuck with too low a price. This explains why goods prices may increase at the onset of a recession and are not accompanied by pronounced deflationary pressures. The two shocks are identified jointly with an approach that is less restrictive than Antolín-Díaz and Rubio-Ramírez’s method. JEL Classification: C32, E32

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2022. "Deflationary financial shocks and inflationary uncertainty shocks: an SVAR Investigation," Working Paper Series 2727, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222727
    Note: 185689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Koivisto, Tero, 2024. "Asset price shocks and inflation in the Finnish economy," BoF Economics Review 6/2024, Bank of Finland.
    3. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    4. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Eurozone inflation: fresh projections from global factors," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 39-47.
    5. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    6. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2024. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when the size matters," Working Paper Series 2972, European Central Bank.
    7. Berthold, Brendan, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and risk aversion shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; narrative identification; SVAR; uncertainty shocks; financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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