IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20172093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax

Author

Listed:
  • Baumann, Ursel
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Dizioli, Allan Gloe

Abstract

Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mechanics of such a tax, its macroeconomic implications as well as its global spillovers using a fully structural global multi-country model. Our results suggest that the short term macroeconomic impact of the reform would depend primarily on how permanent agents perceive the policy to be. Robustness scenarios show that the magnitude of the short term impact will also depend on the extent to which exporters are reimbursed by their domestic costs; what categories of goods are excluded from the reform; how the government uses the revenues generated by the border adjusted tax; and the pricing system used by exporters. Moreover, global spillovers will depend on how easy it is to replace imported goods by domestic production; whether US trading partners retaliate, and how financial markets in emerging economies react. If there is disequilibrium in relative prices in the short term, global economic activity spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially. JEL Classification: C68, E47, F41, F44, F62, O41

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Ursel & Dieppe, Alistair & Dizioli, Allan Gloe, 2017. "Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax," Working Paper Series 2093, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172093
    Note: 345263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2093.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/055, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Buiter, Willem H., 2017. "Exchange rate implications of Border Tax Adjustment neutrality," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-41.
    3. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Martin S. Feldstein & Paul R. Krugman, 1990. "International Trade Effects of Value-Added Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Taxation in the Global Economy, pages 263-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Crucini, Mario J. & Davis, J. Scott, 2016. "Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 203-219.
    6. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    7. Michael Devereux & Rita de la Feria, 2014. "Designing and Implementing a Destination-Based Corporate Tax," Working Papers 1407, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    8. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2009. "The sensitivity of DSGE models’ results to data detrending," Working Papers 157, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    10. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2016. "The Effect of Profit Shifting on the Corporate Tax Base in the United States and Beyond," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(4), pages 905-934, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alan J. Auerbach, 2017. "Demystifying the Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 409-432.
    2. Bond, Eric W. & Gresik, Thomas A., 2020. "Unilateral tax reform: Border adjusted taxes, cash flow taxes, and transfer pricing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Eric W. Bond & Thomas A. Gresik, 2023. "On the incentive compatibility of universal adoption of destination-based cash flow taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1576-1600, December.
    4. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allan Gloe Dizioli & Ursel Baumann & Alistair Dieppe & Allan Gloe Dizioli, 2017. "Tremendous global spillovers. Analysis and mechanisms of the destination based border adjustment tax," EcoMod2017 10520, EcoMod.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    3. Mihoko Shimamoto, 2023. "Normative Corporate Income Tax with Rent for SDGs’ Funding: Case of the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Benjamin Carton & Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2019. "Corporate Tax Reform: From Income to Cash Flow Taxes," IMF Working Papers 2019/013, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Dorian Carloni, 2018. "How Nominal Foreign Currency Depreciation Against the U.S. Dollar Affects U.S. Wealth: Working Paper 2018-05," Working Papers 53931, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
    7. Johannes Becker & Joachim Englisch, 2020. "Unilateral introduction of destination-based cash-flow taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(3), pages 495-513, June.
    8. Raper, Kellie Curry & Love, H. Alan, 1999. "MONOPSONY POWER IN MULTIPLE INPUT MARKETS: A Nonparametric Approach," Staff Paper Series 11656, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    9. Ensar Yılmaz & Zeynep Kaplan, 2022. "Heterogeneity of market power: firm-level evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1207-1228, May.
    10. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May.
    11. Lukáš Čechura & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, 2021. "Market Imperfections within the European Wheat Value Chain: The Case of France and the United Kingdom," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    12. Daniel Anarfi & Danuše Nerudová, 2018. "Profit Shifting and the Tax Response of Multinational Banks in Eastern Europe," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 729-736.
    13. Vallés, Javier & Salas Fumás, Vicente & San Juan, Lucio, 2022. "Corporate economic profits in the euro area: The relevance of cost competitive advantage," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 569-585.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hc03295hg is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Alvaro Montenegro García, 2007. "Fundamentos de la política de la competencia," Documentos de Economía 3930, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    16. Jahangir Aziz & Luc Leruth, 1999. "Cyclical Effects of the Composition of Government Purchases," Macroeconomics 9902007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    18. David Bradbury, & Tibor Hanappi & Anne Moore, . "Estimating the fiscal effects of base erosion and profit shifting: data availability and analytical issues," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    19. Fuest, Clemens & Hugger, Felix & Neumeier, Florian, 2022. "Corporate profit shifting and the role of tax havens: Evidence from German country-by-country reporting data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 454-477.
    20. Jozef Konings & Patrick Van Cayseele & Frédéric Warzynski, 2010. "The Implementation of National Competition Policy Law and the Dynamics of Price–Cost Margins: Evidence from Belgium and the Netherlands 1993–1999," Chapters, in: Jean-Luc Gaffard & Evens Salies (ed.), Innovation, Economic Growth and the Firm, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Alejandro Castañeda Sabido, 2002. "Electricity, Highways and Manufacturing Growth: A Cost Based Estimate," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 59-77, January-J.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; international business cycle; spillovers model based analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.