IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20151810.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries

Author

Listed:
  • Šmídková, Kateřina
  • Joy, Mark
  • Rusnák, Marek
  • Vašíček, Bořek

Abstract

We identify a set of JEL Classification: C14, E44, F37, F47, G01

Suggested Citation

  • Šmídková, Kateřina & Joy, Mark & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1810, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1810.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    5. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-672, September.
    6. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    7. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    8. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    9. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Slacik, Tomas, 2009. "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 621-632, December.
    10. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
    14. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192, pages 68-83, April.
    16. E. Davis & Dilruba Karim & Iana Liadze, 2011. "Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 693-716, November.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    18. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Duttagupta, Rupa & Cashin, Paul, 2011. "Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 354-376, March.
    20. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    23. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    24. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    25. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Multidimensional Distance‐To‐Collapse Point And Sovereign Default Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 205-228, October.
    26. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    27. Bussière, M., 2013. "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers 420, Banque de France.
    28. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandr Patalaha & Maria A. Shchepeleva, 2023. "Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 43-60, December.
    2. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Audit, Dooneshsingh & Alam, Nafis, 2022. "Why have credit variables taken centre stage in predicting systemic banking crises?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    7. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    8. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gunther Tichy, 2020. "Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 193-206, March.
    10. Stéphanie Pamies Sumner & Katia Berti, 2017. "A Complementary Tool to Monitor Fiscal Stress in European Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 049, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Tang, Pan & Tang, Tiantian & Lu, Chennuo, 2024. "Predicting systemic financial risk with interpretable machine learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    14. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    15. Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?," IMF Working Papers 2021/197, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Kurowski Łukasz, 2021. "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 383-414, November.
    17. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "Measuring financial soundness around the world: A machine learning approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    19. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Resce, Giuliano, 2021. "Predicting bankruptcy of local government: A machine learning approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 681-699.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    2. Fendel Ralf & Stremmel Hanno, 2016. "Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Geographical Contagion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 349-388, May.
    3. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
    5. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    6. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    7. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager, 2019. "Systemic early warning systems for EU14 based on the 2008 crisis: proposed estimation and model assessment for classification forecasting," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 226-244, September.
    8. V. Coudert & J. Idier, 2016. "An Early Warning System for Macro-prudential Policy in France," Working papers 609, Banque de France.
    9. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    11. Patrizio Lainà & Juho Nyholm & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 18-35, January.
    12. Zigraiova, Diana & Jakubik, Petr, 2015. "Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 553-576.
    13. Schudel, Willem, 2015. "Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1766, European Central Bank.
    14. Carmine Gabriele, 2019. "Learning from trees: A mixed approach to building early warning systems for systemic banking crises," Working Papers 40, European Stability Mechanism.
    15. Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2018. "Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 344-354.
    16. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2020. "Is Private Debt Excessive?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 471-512, April.
    17. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    18. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    19. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager & Etti Baranoff, 2017. "A ternary-state early warning system for the European Union," Working Papers 222, Bank of Greece.
    20. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crises; binary classification tree; currency crises; early warning indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.