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Housing market dynamics: Any news?

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  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Gomes, Sandra

Abstract

This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that news-shock-driven-cycles account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and have also contributed to run-ups in house prices over the last three decades. By exploring the link between news shocks and agent expectations, we show that house price growth was positively related to inflation expectations during the boom of the late 1970 JEL Classification: C50, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Mendicino, Caterina & Gomes, Sandra, 2015. "Housing market dynamics: Any news?," Working Paper Series 1775, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151775
    Note: 1774743
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    4. Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2018. "Housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 117, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Anthony C Constantinou & Norman Fenton, 2017. "The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-30, June.
    6. Virginia Queijo von Heideken & Ferre De Graeve, 2012. "Fiscal policy in contemporary DSGE models," 2012 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Juan Carlos Castro Fernández & Juan Carlos Castro Fernández, 2022. "Financial Crises and Expectation-driven Recessions," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 20129, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    8. Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Regionally heterogeneous housing cycles and housing market stabilization policies: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    10. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.
    11. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    14. Juan Carlos Castro Fernández & Juan Carlos Castro Fernández, 2022. "Big Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 20128, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    15. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bayesian estimation; financial frictions; housing market; local identification; news shocks; survey expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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