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The impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area

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  • Hahn, Elke

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area. Using a VAR framework it provides evidence on the magnitude and speed of the impact of exchange rate shocks on activity in all main euro area sectors and on activity and producer prices in a large set of sub-sectors of industry (excluding construction). Substantial heterogeneity in the impact of exchange rate shocks across sectors is identified as regards both activity and prices. According to our results, among the main euro area sectors an exchange rate shock has the strongest impact on value added in industry (excl. construction) and trade and transportation services. Within industry (excl. construction), among its main sub-sectors all of the impact on production comes via manufacturing, while among the main industrial groupings (MIGs), capital and intermediate goods production respond most strongly. As regards the impact on prices, among the sub-sectors of industry (excl. construction), the impact is largest on producer prices in electricity, gas and water supply, and in line with this producer prices in MIG energy are most sensitive to an exchange rate shock. JEL Classification: C32, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Hahn, Elke, 2007. "The impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area," Working Paper Series 796, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007796
    Note: 854549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Ozer Karagedikli & Michael Ryan & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? The sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    4. Bing Zhang & Xindan Li, 2010. "Currency appreciation and stock market performance: Evidence from China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 393-411, September.
    5. Karagedikli, Özer & Ryan, Michael & Steenkamp, Daan & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2016. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 945-959.
    6. Akbar, Muhammad & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2021. "Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 574-600.
    7. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    8. Gábor Pellényi, 2012. "The Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy in Hungary: A Structural Factor Analysis," MNB Working Papers 2012/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Stahn Kerstin, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
    10. Nada Shokry & Mohamed Bouaddi, 2018. "Devaluation: Is it Contractionary or Expansionary to Economic Sectors? The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 1252, Economic Research Forum, revised 13 Nov 2018.
    11. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    12. Ponomarev, Yuri (Пономарев, Юрий), 2015. "The effect of the transfer dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in prices in Russian industries [Эффект Переноса Динамики Обменного Курса Рубля В Цены В Российских Отраслях Промышленности]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 53-70.
    13. Bampi, Rodrigo E. & Colombo, Jefferson A., 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange appreciation on industrial output: Evidence from disaggregated manufacturing data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 431-451.
    14. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
    15. Julia Ferreira Torracca & David Kupfe, 2014. "A Evolução Da Taxa De Câmbio Efetiva Real Setorial E A Mudança Estrutural No Padrão De Comércio Da Indústria Brasileira," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 114, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Robert Anderton & Paul Hiebert, 2009. "The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; exchange rate pass-through; Sectoral Activity and Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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