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Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches

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  • Orphanides, Athanasios

Abstract

I estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the Federal Reserve for the periods before and after Paul Volcker's appointment as Chairman in 1979, using information that was available to the FOMC in real time from 1966 to 1995. The results suggest broad similarities in policy and point to a forward looking approach to policy consistent with a strong reaction to inflation forecasts during both periods. This contradicts the hypothesis, based on analysis with ex post constructed data, that the instability of the Great Inflation was the result of weak FOMC policy responses to expected inflation. A difference is that prior to Volcker's appointment, policy was too activist in reacting to perceived output gaps that retrospectively proved overambitious. Drawing on contemporaneous accounts of FOMC policy, I discuss the implications of the findings for alternative explanations of the Great Inflation and the improvement in macroeconomic stability since then JEL Classification: E3, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Orphanides, Athanasios, 2002. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 115, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002115
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    greenbook forecasts; monetary policy rules; real-time data; stagflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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