The EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy from a central banking perspective - Challenges to the monetary policy landscape from a changing geopolitical environment

Over the past decade, geopolitical developments – and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world – have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU’s economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU’s OSA policy agenda which extends to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB’s monetary policy and other policies. JEL Classification: F0, F10, F30, F4, F5, F45, E42, L5, Q43