IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drm/wpaper/2010-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Family Hitch : Econometrics of the New and the Used Car Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Prado

Abstract

Everybody knows that the new cars of today are used cars of tomorrow and some people assume a competition between new and used markets. There are numerous, preconceived ideas and academic theories regarding the interactions between primary and secondary markets. To investigate the relations, we provide a macroeconomic analysis of the French, the British and the US car markets. We aim at answering the following questions. What are the interactions between the new and the second-hand car markets? Can we use the interactions to estimate the car prices of tomorrow? Our results indicate that the relations appear limited for France and the UK, whereas the US market faces a Scitoscky mechanism. Furthermore, they illustrate that the interrelations are not strong enough to fully explain and forecast market patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Prado, 2010. "A Family Hitch : Econometrics of the New and the Used Car Markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-4, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2010-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2010/WP_EcoX_2010-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sylvain Prado, 2009. "Hedging residual value risk using derivatives," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
    3. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2006. "Second-Hand Markets and Collusion by Manufacturers of Semidurable Goods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-028, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Emons, Winand & Sheldon, George, 2002. "The Market for Used Cars: A New Test of the Lemons Model," Discussion Paper Series 26353, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    5. Michael Waldman, 1996. "Planned Obsolescence and the R&D Decision," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(3), pages 583-595, Autumn.
    6. Karen Alvarez & Richard Peach, 1996. "Core CPI: excluding food, energy ... and used cars?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Apr).
    7. Anderson, Simon P. & Ginsburgh, Victor A., 1994. "Price discrimination via second-hand markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 23-44, January.
    8. Sylvain M. Prado, 2009. "The European used-car market at a glance: Hedonic resale price valuation in automotive leasing industry," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2086-2099.
    9. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Frank Verboven, 2001. "The Evolution of Price Dispersion in the European Car Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 811-848.
    10. Alessandro Lizzeri & Igal Hendel, 1999. "Adverse Selection in Durable Goods Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1097-1115, December.
    11. E. Sieper & P. L. Swan, 1973. "Monopoly and Competition in the Market for Durable Goods," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(3), pages 333-351.
    12. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Coase, Ronald H, 1972. "Durability and Monopoly," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 143-149, April.
    15. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    16. Guillaume Gaulier & Séverine Haller, 2000. "The Convergence of Automobile Prices in the European Union: an Empirical Analysis for the Period 1993-1999," Working Papers 2000-14, CEPII research center.
    17. Clerides, Sofronis, 2008. "Gains from trade in used goods: Evidence from automobiles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 322-336, December.
    18. Rust, John, 1986. "When Is It Optimal to Kill Off the Market for Used Durable Goods?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 65-86, January.
    19. Michael Waldman, 2003. "Durable Goods Theory for Real World Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 131-154, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sylvain M. Prado, 2010. "Macroeconomics of the New and the Used Car Markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1862-1884.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galiani, Sebastian & Jaitman, Laura & Weinschelbaum, Federico, 2020. "Crime and durable goods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 146-163.
    2. Michael Waldman, 2004. "Antitrust Perspectives for Durable-Goods Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1306, CESifo.
    3. Michael Waldman, 2003. "Durable Goods Theory for Real World Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 131-154, Winter.
    4. Eric Brouillat, 2011. "Durability of consumption goods and market competition: an agent-based modelling," Post-Print hal-00780254, HAL.
    5. Gerstle, Ari D. & Waldman, Michael, 2016. "Mergers in durable-goods industries: A re-examination of market power and welfare effects," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 677-692.
    6. Alessandro Gavazza & Alessandro Lizzeri & Nikita Roketskiy, 2014. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Used-Car Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3668-3700, November.
    7. Susanna Esteban & Matthew Shum, 2007. "Durable-goods oligopoly with secondary markets: the case of automobiles," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 332-354, June.
    8. Evrim Dener, 2011. "Quality uncertainty and time inconsistency in a durable good market," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-24, September.
    9. Adriano A. Rampini, 2019. "Financing Durable Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 664-701, February.
    10. Kumar, Praveen, 2002. "Price and quality discrimination in durable goods monopoly with resale trading," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1313-1339, November.
    11. Eric Brouillat, 2015. "Live fast, die young? Investigating product life spans and obsolescence in an agent-based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 447-473, April.
    12. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Markellos, Raphael N., 2015. "Dynamic interaction between markets for leasing and selling automobiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 260-270.
    13. Judith Chevalier & Austan Goolsbee, 2009. "Are Durable Goods Consumers Forward-Looking? Evidence from College Textbooks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1853-1884.
    14. Chen, Jiawei & Esteban, Susanna & Shum, Matthew, 2008. "Demand and supply estimation biases due to omission of durability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 247-257, December.
    15. Clerides, Sofronis & Hadjiyiannis, Costas, 2008. "Quality standards for used durables: An indirect subsidy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 268-282, July.
    16. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2006. "Second-Hand Markets and Collusion by Manufacturers of Semidurable Goods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-028, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    17. Avner Offer, 2005. "The Markup for Lemons: Quality and Uncertainty in American and British Used-Car Markets c.1953-1973," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _060, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Banerjee, Sumitro & Soberman, David A., 2013. "Product development capability and marketing strategy for new durable products," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 276-291.
    19. Sumitro Banerjee & David A. Soberman, 2013. "Product development capability and marketing strategy for new durable products," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-13-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    20. Lee, Jinhyuk & Park, Jaeok, 2014. "Pricing Of Complementary Goods As An Implicit Financial Arrangement," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 55(2), pages 207-228, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    second-hand market; automotive market; prices; causality; cyclical correlations; VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2010-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valerie Mignon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/modemfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.