IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dpr/wpaper/1245.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Was Keynes right? A reconsideration of the effect of a protective tariff under stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Ken-ichi Hashimoto
  • Kaz Miyagiwa
  • Yoshiyasu Ono
  • Matthias Schlegl

Abstract

This paper first presents a dynamic model that features both real and monetary aspects of international trade and is capable of dealing with both full employment and secular unemployment. The model is then utilized to examine the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade, the trade pattern, real consumption and employment of labor. It is shown that with full employment in both countries, a tariff by the home country improves its terms of trade and increases its national welfare at the expense of the foreign country. These results however are reversed in the presence of unemployment in both countries. We also examine the asymmetric cases and calibrate our model to evaluate numerically the effect of large tariff changes. The main finding is that the tariff only worsens the economy when it is already stagnant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2024. "Was Keynes right? A reconsideration of the effect of a protective tariff under stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1245, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2024/DP1245.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Bergin, Paul R, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14556, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2018. "Macroeconomic Interdependence Between a Stagnant and a Fully Employed Country," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 450-477, December.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    5. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2014. "International Economic Interdependence and Exchange-rate Adjustment under Persistent Stagnation," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 70-92, March.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    7. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    8. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
    9. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "International Asymmetry In Business Activity And Appreciation Of A Stagnant Country'S Currency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 101-120, March.
    10. Naito, Takumi, 2012. "A Ricardian model of trade and growth with endogenous trade status," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 80-88.
    11. Opp, Marcus M., 2010. "Tariff wars in the Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 212-225, March.
    12. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1466-1514.
    13. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    14. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    15. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2022. "An economical business-cycle model [Breaking through the zero lower bound]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 382-411.
    16. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 2, pages 25-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Japanese Economy: Two Lost Decades and How Many More?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(5), pages 291-296, September.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    19. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2018. "Secular stagnation: Theory and remedies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 552-618.
    20. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 165-204, January.
    21. Takumi Naito, 2021. "Can The Optimal Tariff Be Zero For A Growing Large Country?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1237-1280, August.
    22. Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2001. "A Reinterpretation of Chapter 17 of Keynes's General Theory: Effective Demand Shortage under Dynamic Optimization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 207-236, February.
    23. Yoshiyasu Ono & Junichiro Ishida, 2014. "On Persistent Demand Shortages: A Behavioural Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 42-69, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2020. "A simple aggregate demand analysis with dynamic optimization in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 89-99.
    2. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jun 2019.
    3. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
    4. Kaz Miyagiwa & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2019. "Immigration and Secular Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1054, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Ikefuji, Masako & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2021. "Environmental policies in a stagnant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2023.
    9. Murota, Ryu-ichiro & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2015. "Fiscal policy under deflationary gap and long-run stagnation: Reinterpretation of Keynesian multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 596-603.
    10. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2019. "Negative interest rate policy in a permanent liquidity trap," MPRA Paper 93498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ryu-ichiro Murota & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2015. "Fiscal Policy under Long-run Stagnation: A New Interpretation of the Multiplier Effect," ISER Discussion Paper 0937, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2018. "Macroeconomic Interdependence Between a Stagnant and a Fully Employed Country," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 450-477, December.
    13. repec:dpr:wpaper:1241 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Takumi Naito, 2016. "Aid for Trade and Global Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1178-1201, November.
    15. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2017. "Country Size, Specialization Patterns and Secular Demand Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6752, CESifo.
    16. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    17. Masako Ikefuji & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Environmental Policies and Stagnation in a Two-Country Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10825, CESifo.
    18. repec:dpr:wpaper:1241r is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2022. "Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 578-606, December.
    20. Mika Akesaka & Ryo Mikami & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2024. "Insatiable Wealth Preference: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey," Discussion Paper Series DP2024-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2024.
    21. Yoshiyasu Ono & Katsunori Yamada, 2018. "Difference or Ratio: Implications of Status Preference on Stagnation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 346-362, September.
    22. Daisuke Matsuzaki & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2023. "Economic stimulus effects of product innovation under demand stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 1204, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Librarian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isosujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.