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Gold and oil futures markets: are markets efficient?

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Narayan, Seema
  • Zheng, Xinwei

Abstract

In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study.
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Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "Gold and oil futures markets: are markets efficient?," Working Papers eco_2010_13, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2010_13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.03.020
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    Keywords

    Gold; Oil; Spot and Futures Markets; Inflation; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

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