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Money, Inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000

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  • Nina Budina
  • Wojtek Maliszewski
  • Georges de Menil
  • Geomina Turlea

Abstract

Money, inflation and output are tested for stationarity, and found to be integrated of order one. We apply the Johansen procedure for cointegration to test for the rank of the matrix of cointegrating relations (one), to test for the weak exogeneity of output (accepted), inflation (rejected) and money (rejected). We interpret the unique cointegrating relationship as an extended Cagan money demand equation, and estimate error correction mechanisms, in which excess supply of real money contributes significantly to the short-run dynamics of inflation and real money. The evidence suggests than in the period considered, including the sub-sample between the liberalisation shocks, inflation was largely a monetary phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Budina & Wojtek Maliszewski & Georges de Menil & Geomina Turlea, 2002. "Money, Inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000," DELTA Working Papers 2002-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    • Handle: RePEc:del:abcdef:2002-15
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    Cited by:

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    2. Capraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2011. "External Factors Influence On Inflation: The Case Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 469-475, July.
    3. Daniel Ordonez Callamand & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2018. "Una exploración reciente a la demanda por dinero en Colombia bajo un enfoque no lineal," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(1), pages 5-37, June.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2010. "Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3293-3305.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani & Ali M. Kutan & Dan Xi, 2019. "On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Demand for Money: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 1-22, April.
    7. Ionuţ Cristian BACIU, 2014. "The Relationship Between Inflation And The Main Macroeconomic Variables In Romania," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 4, pages 161-172, November.
    8. Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olagbaju Ifeolu Oladiran, 2014. "Inflation, output gap, and money in Malaysia: evidence from wavelet coherence," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3/4), pages 320-338.
    9. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Dynamic modelling of the demand for money in Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 53-74, October.
    10. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Modelling anti-inflationary monetary targeting: with an application to Romania," Working Paper Series 1186, European Central Bank.
    11. Zahra Rouhani & Mehdi Behname & Sayed Mahdi Mostafavi, 2013. "A Comparative Study For Opportunity Cost Of Holding Money Between Selected Developing And Developed Countries," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 7-17, december.
    12. Cuneyt Dumrul & Yasemin Dumrul, 2015. "Price-Money Relationship after Infl ation Targeting: Co-integration Test with Structural Breaks for Turkey and Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 701-708.
    13. Sovannroeun Samreth, 2015. "An Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2625-2636.

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