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Winners and Losers in House Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

    (Princeton University)

  • Alexander Michaelides

    (Central Bank of Cyprus and London School of Economics)

  • Kalin Nikolov

    (Bank of England and London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper is a quantitatively-oriented theoretical study of the interaction between housing prices, aggregate production, and household behavior over a lifetime. We develop a life-cycle model of a production economy in which land and capital are used to build residential and commercial real estates. We find that, in an economy where the share of land in the value of real estates is large, housing prices react more to an exogenous change in expected productivity or the world interest rate, causing a large redistribution between net buyers and net sellers of houses. Changing financing constraints, however, has limited effects on housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2010. "Winners and Losers in House Markets," Working Papers 2010-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    • Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2010-5
    as

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    File URL: https://www.centralbank.cy/images/media/pdf/NPWPE_No5_072010.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. US house prices have to fluctuate more than elsewhere
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-11-12 21:48:00
    2. Winners and Losers in House Markets
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2010-11-05 23:36:34

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Hintermaier & Winfried Koeniger, 2016. "Debt Portfolios and Homestead Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 103-141, October.
    2. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier de Bandt & Karim Barhoumi, 2010. "The International Transmission of House Price Shocks," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00665531, HAL.
    3. François Ortalo-Magné & Andrea Prat, 2016. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 130-171, January.
    4. Morris A. Davis & Francois Ortalo-Magne, 2011. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 248-261, April.
    5. Óscar Arce & David López-Salido, 2011. "Housing Bubbles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 212-241, January.
    6. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    7. Cho, Sang-Wook (Stanley) & Sane, Renuka, 2013. "Means-Tested Age Pensions And Homeownership: Is There A Link?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1281-1310, September.
    8. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Time-Varying Expected Returns: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," NIPE Working Papers 10/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Makoto Nakajima, 2011. "Understanding house-price dynamics," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 20-28.
    11. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    12. Kaiji Chen, 2010. "A Life-Cycle Analysis of Social Security with Housing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 597-615, July.
    13. Andreas Hornstein, 2009. "Problems for a fundamental theory of house prices," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 1-24.
    14. Waldron, Matt & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Household debt, house prices and consumption in the United Kingdom: a quantitative theoretical analysis," Bank of England working papers 379, Bank of England.
    15. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
    16. Gervais, Martin & Fisher, Jonas, 2009. "Why has home ownership fallen among the young?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0907, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estates; land; housing prices; life cycle; collateral constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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