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The Dynamics of the House Price-to-Income Ratio: Theory and Evidence

Author

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  • Charles Ka Yui Leung

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Edward Chi Ho Tang

    (Hong Kong Shue Yan University)

Abstract

The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2021. "The Dynamics of the House Price-to-Income Ratio: Theory and Evidence," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_005, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_005
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Yifan & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2024. "Does space matter? The case of the housing expenditure cap," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & (single author only), 2021. "Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics: An Introduction," ISER Discussion Paper 1137, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Edward C. H. Tang, 2024. "Examining the Impacts of the Pandemic on the Housing Bubble in Hong Kong," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(1), pages 27-46, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing affordability; output dynamics; endogenous house price; wage rigidity; monetary policy rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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