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Currency Unions and Trade: A Post‐EMU Reassessment

Author

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  • Reuven Glick

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Andrew K. Rose

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

In our European Economic Review (2002) paper, we used pre‐1998 data on countries participating in and leaving currency unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then‐) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which includes the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We have three findings. First, our assumption of symmetry between the effects of entering and leaving a currency union seems reasonable in the data. Second, our preferred methodology indicates that EMU has boosted exports by around 50%. While other estimation techniques yield different results, a panel approach with both time‐varying country and dyadic fixed effects on a large span of data (across both countries and time) seems to deliver insensitive and reliable results. Third, different currency unions have different trade effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, "undated". "Currency Unions and Trade: A Post‐EMU Reassessment," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2016_016
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    File URL: https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232016-016_Andrew%20K_%20Rose(1).pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; exports; bilateral; common; fixed; time‐varying; country; specific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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