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Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting

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  • Cuevas Rumín, Ángel
  • Quilis, Enrique M.
  • Espasa, Antoni

Abstract

In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate and forecast the GDP of the different regions of a country, providing quarterly profiles paper offers a new instrument for short degree of synchronicity among regional business cycles. Technically, we combine time series models with benchma quarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal and transversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issue of non-additivity taking into account linked volume indexes used by the National Accounts and provides an efficient combination of structural as well as short-term information. The methodology is illustrated by an application to the quarterly GDP estimates and forecasts at the regional level (i.e., with a minimum compilation delay with respect to the national quarterly GDP)

Suggested Citation

  • Cuevas Rumín, Ángel & Quilis, Enrique M. & Espasa, Antoni, 2011. "Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws114130, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws114130
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Cobb, 2014. "GDP Forecasting Bias due to Aggregation Inaccuracy in a Chain- Linking Framework," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 721, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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