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Behavioural credit cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Delli Gatti

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Gabriele Iannotta

Abstract

We explore the intertwined dynamics of asset prices and the macroeconomy in a Behavioural model of Credit Cycles (BCC) characterized by a credit friction a' la Kiyotaki and Moore and heterogeneous expectations cum heuristic switching a la Brock and Hommes. This behavioural approach allows to better understand and replicate the effects of shocks. In the absence of actual defaults, following a positive productivity shock, our behavioural model (BCC Mark I) generates hump-shaped impulse-response functions that are more realistic than those generated by the same shock in a corresponding model with rational expec- tations (RCC). When the behavioural model allows also for defaults (BCC Mark II), a productivity shock triggers ample and persistent uctuations (if the intensity of choice of the lender is suciently high), a feature that is absent in BCC Mark I (and of course in RCC).

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Delli Gatti & Gabriele Iannotta, 2022. "Behavioural credit cycles," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def119, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    2. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 48-62.
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    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    5. Cars Hommes, 2021. "Behavioral and Experimental Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis: A Complex Systems Approach," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 149-219, March.
    6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    7. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. George A. Akerlof, 2003. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 47(1), pages 25-47, March.
    9. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
    10. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    11. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Punzo & Giulia Rivolta, 2022. "Money versus debt financed regime: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def120, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Market; Collateral Constraints; Heterogeneous Expectations; Bankruptcy; Boom Bust Cycles.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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