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The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ronak Jain
  • Joshua Budlender
  • Rocco Zizzamia
  • Ihsaan Bassier

Abstract

We use newly-released South African data to present the first estimates of COVID-19-related employment and poverty impacts in a developing country. We observe a 40% decline in active employment. Half of this comprises job termina¬tions, suggesting persistent labor market effects. Initially vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected. Exploiting the dataset’s panel dimension and compar¬ing lockdown incomes of job losers to re-weighted job retainers, we estimate that 20-33% of job losers fall into poverty. Only 20% of those temporarily not working received the intended relief, while a third of job losers had no access to any major form of social protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronak Jain & Joshua Budlender & Rocco Zizzamia & Ihsaan Bassier, 2020. "The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2020-14
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Umakrishnan Kollamparambil & Adeola Oyenubi, 2021. "Behavioural response to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Minoru Higa & Carlos Ospino & Fernando Aragon, 2023. "The persistent effects of COVID-19 on labour outcomes: evidence from Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1065-1076, May.
    3. Tim Köhler & Haroon Bhorat, 2021. "Can cash transfers aid labour market recovery? Evidence from South Africa’s special COVID-19 grant," Working Papers 202108, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    4. Oyenubi, Adeola & Kollamparambil, Umakrishnan, 2023. "Does noncompliance with COVID-19 regulations impact the depressive symptoms of others?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. M. A. Baqui Khalily & Mohammed Jamal Uddin & Tunazzina Sultana & Naim Uddin Hasan Awrangajeb Chy & Zapan Barua, 2023. "Coping with the economic effects of COVID-19: an evidence from the Bangladesh labour market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-26, July.
    6. Isaac Khambule, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Counter-cyclical Role of the State in South Africa," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 21(4), pages 380-396, October.
    7. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2020. "The Crisis and Job Guarantees in Urban India," IZA Discussion Papers 13760, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Muna Shifa & David Gordon & Murray Leibbrandt & Mary Zhang, 2022. "Socioeconomic-Related Inequalities in COVID-19 Vulnerability in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Marieke Theron & Rina Swart & Mukhethwa Londani & Charles Parry & Petal Petersen Williams & Nadine Harker, 2022. "Did COVID-19-Related Alcohol Sales Restrictions Reduce Alcohol Consumption? Findings from a National Online Survey in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Helen Barnes & Gabriel Espi-Sanchis & Murray Leibbrandt & David McLennan & Michael Noble & Jukka Olavi Pirttilä & Wynnona Steyn & Brenton Van Vrede & Gemma Wright, 2021. "Analysis of the Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and State-led Remedial Measures in South Africa," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 14(2), pages 2-31.
    11. Fitzpatrick, Anne & Beg, Sabrin & Derksen, Laura & Karing, Anne & Kerwin, Jason & Lucas, Adrienne M. & Ordaz Reynoso, Natalia & Squires, Munir, 2021. "Health knowledge and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 33-53.
    12. Adjognon, Guigonan Serge & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Sanoh, Aly, 2021. "The coronavirus pandemic and food security: Evidence from Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    13. Nicola Raimo & Pedro-José Martínez-Córdoba & Bernardino Benito & Filippo Vitolla, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply and Demand in the Spanish Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, November.
    14. Barron, Kai & Bradshaw, Debbie & Parry, Charles D. H. & Dorrington, Rob & Groenewald, Pam & Laubscher, Ria & Matzopoulos, Richard, 2021. "Alcohol and Short-Run Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 273, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    15. Dorrit Posel & Adeola Oyenubi & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil, 2021. "Job loss and mental health during the COVID-19 lockdown: Evidence from South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Liang, Xiao & Rozelle, Scott & Yi, Hongmei, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on employment and income of vocational graduates in China: Evidence from surveys in January and July 2020," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Vusi Gumede, 2021. "Revisiting Poverty, Human Development and Inequality in Democratic South Africa," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 15(2), pages 183-199, August.
    18. Yichen Shen & Rong Fu & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "COVID‐19's Lockdown and Crime Victimization: The State of Emergency under the Abe Administration," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 327-348, July.
    19. TC Mahopo & CN Nesamvuni & AE Nesamvuni & Melanie de Bruyn & J Van Niekerk, 2022. "Socioeconomic characteristic of street food vending enterprises in the Vhembe district, Limpopo province," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 419-437, March.
    20. Adjognon,Guigonan Serge & Bloem,Jeffrey R. & Sanoh,Aly, 2020. "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Food Security : Evidence from West Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9474, The World Bank.
    21. Leininger, Julia & Strupat, Christoph & Adeto, Yonas Adaye & Shimeles, Abebe & Wasike, Wilson & Aleksandrova, Mariya & Berger, Axel & Brandi, Clara & Brüntrup, Michael & Burchi, Francesco & Dick, Eva , 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and structural transformation in Africa: Evidence for action," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    22. Nam, Minhyuk & Lee, Soohyung, 2021. "COVID-19 and Employment in South Korea: Trends and Comparison with the 2008 Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 14101, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Robert Hill & Tim Köhler, 2021. "Mind the gap: The distributional effects of South Africa’s national lockdown on gender wage inequality," Working Papers 202101, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    24. Zamalotshwa Thembisile Thusi & Sampson Tawiah, 2023. "The Changing Landscape of Teaching and Learning: How Adult Students View Online Approaches at a University in South Africa," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2023 0346, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    25. Charles Adams & Derek Yu, 2022. "Labour market trends in South Africa in 2009-2019: A lost decade?," Working Papers 03/2022, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; poverty; unemployment; COVID-19; social protection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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