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Modeling default correlation in a US retail loan portfolio

Author

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  • Wolff, Christian
  • Bams, Dennis
  • Pisa, Magdalena

Abstract

This paper generalizes the existing asymptotic single-factor model to address issues related to industry heterogeneity, default clustering and parameter uncertainty of capital requirement in US retail loan portfolios. We argue that the Basel II capital requirement overstates the riskiness of small businesses even with prudential adjustments. Moreover, our estimates show that both location and spread of loss distribution bare uncertainty. Their shifts over the course of the recent crisis have important risk management implications. The results are based on a unique representative dataset of US small businesses from 2005 to 2011 and give fundamental insights into the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolff, Christian & Bams, Dennis & Pisa, Magdalena, 2012. "Modeling default correlation in a US retail loan portfolio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Dietsch, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures: a comparative analysis of probabilities of default and assets correlations in French and German SMEs," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14164, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2005. "Measuring the Default Risk of Small Business Loans: A Survival Analysis Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 923-947, October.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    4. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    5. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
    6. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    7. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2002. "The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 303-322, March.
    8. McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    10. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    11. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 773-788, April.
    12. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    13. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Botha, Marius & Vuuren, Gary Van, 2010. "Implied asset correlation in retail loan portfolios," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 3(2), pages 156-173, March.
    15. Giesecke, Kay, 2006. "Default and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2281-2303, November.
    16. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 995, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Wolff, Christian & Bams, Dennis & Pisa, Magdalena, 2015. "Ripple effects from industry defaults," CEPR Discussion Papers 10891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Düllmann, Klaus & Koziol, Philipp, 2013. "Evaluation of minimum capital requirements for bank loans to SMEs," Discussion Papers 22/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 995, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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