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The Optimal Rate of Inflation

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  • Uribe, Martín
  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie

Abstract

Observed inflation targets around the industrial world are concentrated at two percent per year. This paper investigates the extent to which the observed magnitudes of inflation targets are consistent with the optimal rate of inflation predicted by leading theories of monetary non-neutrality. We find that consistently those theories imply that the optimal rate of inflation ranges from minus the real rate of interest to numbers insignificantly above zero. Furthermore, we argue that the zero bound on nominal interest rates does not represent an impediment for setting inflation targets near or below zero. Finally, we find that central banks should adjust their inflation targets upward by the size of the quality bias in measured inflation only if hedonic prices are more sticky than are non-quality-adjusted prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7864
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downward nominal rigidities; Foreign demand for money; Friedman rule; Quality bias; Ramsey policy; Sticky-prices; Zero bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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