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Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair

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  • Sonin, Konstantin
  • Goriaev, Alexei P.

Abstract

The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by the law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those were privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonin, Konstantin & Goriaev, Alexei P., 2005. "Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair," CEPR Discussion Papers 5076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076
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    Cited by:

    1. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Kuznetsov, Andrei & Demina, Natalia & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2013. "Threats to security of property rights in a transition economy: An empirical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 245-264.
    2. Goriaev, Alexei & Zabotkin, Alexei, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 380-397, December.
    3. Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Dictators and oligarchs: A dynamic theory of contested property rights," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Scott Gehlbach, 2006. "The Consequences of Collective Action: An Incomplete‐Contracts Approach," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 802-823, July.
    5. Lozinskaia, Agata & Saltykova, Anastasiia, 2019. "Fundamental Factors Affecting the MOEX Russia Index: Retrospective Analysis," MPRA Paper 97308, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Sep 2019.
    6. Durnev, Art & Fauver, Larry, 2008. "Stealing from Thieves: Firm Governance and Performance when States are Predatory," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-12, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Agata Lozinskaia & Anastasiia Saltykova, 2019. "Fundamental Factors Affecting The Moex Russia Index: Structural Break Detection In A Long-Term Time Series," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/FE/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5um2bhne3f862raaulvoogm15e is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Olga Lazareva & Andrei Rachinsky & Sergey Stepanov, 2008. "A Survey of Corporate Governance in Russia," Springer Books, in: Robert W. McGee (ed.), Corporate Governance in Transition Economies, chapter 32, pages 315-349, Springer.
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    18. Art Durnev & Vihang Errunza & Alexander Molchanov, 2009. "Property rights protection, corporate transparency, and growth," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(9), pages 1533-1562, December.
    19. Felipe Bastos G. Silva & Ekaterina Volkova, 2018. "Can VPIN forecast geopolitical events? Evidence from the 2014 Crimean Crisis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 125-141, February.
    20. Zadorozhna Olha & Zaderey Natalia, 2013. "Impact of Political Regime Shift on Stock Returns of Oligarch Firms," EERC Working Paper Series 13/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    22. R. Sverchkov & K. Sonin., 2014. "Financial Markets Efficiency (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics 2013)," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.

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    Keywords

    Event study; Privatization; Oil; company specific political risk; Russian stock market;
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