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Fear to Vote: Explosions, Salience, and Elections

Author

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  • Vargas, Juan F.
  • Purroy, Miguel
  • Coy, Felipe
  • Perilla, Sergio
  • Prem, Mounu

Abstract

We study how antipersonnel landmines thwart democratic accountability and the consolidation of post-conflict democratic institutions. We do so by exploiting the randomness in the timing of landmine explosions relative to election days, comparing the electoral outcomes of voting polls located close to a pre-election explosion with those of polls near a post-election blast. We show that landmine explosions are salient stimuli that produce fear, reducing political participation. While the turnout reduction takes place across the ideological spectrum, we document that the explosions induce shifts in the political preferences of individuals who do vote, which are inconsistent with retrospective voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Vargas, Juan F. & Purroy, Miguel & Coy, Felipe & Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "Fear to Vote: Explosions, Salience, and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 18842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18842
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    Cited by:

    1. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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