IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/17919.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yao
  • Palma, Nuno
  • Ward, Felix

Abstract

We estimate the contribution of the American precious metal windfall to West Europe’s growth performance in the early modern period. The exogenous nature of American precious metal extraction allows for the identification of monetary effects. We find that American precious metals fostered West Europe’s growth by stimulating trade and capital accumulation. Our findings place West Europe’s second-stage receivers in a particularly fortunate goldilocks zone that enjoyed monetary stimulus, while being insulated against the transport-loss induced financial crises that caused persistent damage to first-stage receiver Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yao & Palma, Nuno & Ward, Felix, 2023. "Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West," CEPR Discussion Papers 17919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP17919
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    2. Kelly, M., 1996. "The Dynamics of Smithian growth," Papers 96/9, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
    3. Dennison, Tracy & Ogilvie, Sheilagh, 2014. "Does the European Marriage Pattern Explain Economic Growth?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 651-693, September.
    4. Kedrosky, Davis & Palma, Nuno, 2021. "The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 574, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. de Vries, Jan, 1994. "The Industrial Revolution and the Industrious Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(2), pages 249-270, June.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    7. Broadberry,Stephen & Campbell,Bruce M. S. & Klein,Alexander & Overton,Mark & van Leeuwen,Bas, 2015. "British Economic Growth, 1270–1870," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107070783, January.
    8. Federico, Giovanni & Schulze, Max-Stephan & Volckart, Oliver, 2021. "European Goods Market Integration in the Very Long Run: From the Black Death to the First World War," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 276-308, March.
    9. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2022. "Why Do People Stay Poor? [“Exploring Poverty Traps and Social Exclusion in South Africa Using Qualitative and Quantitative Data,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
    10. Douglas A. Irwin, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Autarky: Evidence from the Jeffersonian Trade Embargo, 1807–09," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 631-645, September.
    11. Broadberry, Stephen, 2021. "Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Morgan Kelly, 1997. "The Dynamics of Smithian Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 939-964.
    13. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    14. Joerg Baten & Jan Zanden, 2008. "Book production and the onset of modern economic growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 217-235, September.
    15. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Comparative European Institutions and the Little Divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 259-294, June.
    16. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bouet, Antoine, 2008. "The expected benefits of trade liberalization for world income and development: Opening the “black box” of global trade modeling," Food policy reviews 8, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Engerman, Stanley L., 1972. "The Slave Trade and British Capital Formation in the Eighteenth Century: A Comment on the Williams Thesis," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 430-443, January.
    20. Allen,Robert C., 2009. "The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521868273, September.
    21. Charotti, Carlos Javier & Palma, Nuno & dos Santos, Joao Pereira, 2022. "American treasure and the decline of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 17020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2005. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 546-579, June.
    23. Robert Warren Anderson & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2017. "Jewish Persecutions and Weather Shocks: 1100–1800," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 924-958, June.
    24. Tine De Moor & Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2010. "Girl power: the European marriage pattern and labour markets in the North Sea region in the late medieval and early modern period1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 63(1), pages 1-33, February.
    25. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    26. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    27. Daniel M. Bernhofen & John C. Brown, 2005. "An Empirical Assessment of the Comparative Advantage Gains from Trade: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 208-225, March.
    28. Jeremy Edwards & Sheilagh Ogilvie, 2022. "Did the Black Death cause economic development by ‘inventing’ fertility restriction? [Land use and management in the upland demesne of the De Lacy estate of Blackburnshire c. 1300]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1228-1246.
    29. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    30. Gregory Clark, 2007. "The long march of history: Farm wages, population, and economic growth, England 1209–18691," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(1), pages 97-135, February.
    31. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    32. Carlos, Ann M. & Neal, Larry, 2011. "Amsterdam and London as financial centers in the eighteenth century1," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 21-46, April.
    33. Robert Warren Anderson & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2017. "Jewish Persecutions and Weather Shocks: 1100–1800," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 924-958, June.
    34. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Correction to: Comparative european institutions and the little divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 295-295, June.
    35. Burnette, Joyce, 1999. "Labourers at the Oakes: Changes in the Demand for Female Day-Laborers at a Farm near Sheffield During the Agricultural Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 41-67, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:tin:wpaper:220063 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jane Humphries & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Unreal Wages? Real Income and Economic Growth in England, 1260–1850," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2867-2887.
    3. Alexandra de Pleijt & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2021. "Two worlds of female labour: gender wage inequality in western Europe, 1300–1800," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(3), pages 611-638, August.
    4. Jakob B. Madsen & Fabrice Murtin, 2017. "British economic growth since 1270: the role of education," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 229-272, September.
    5. Ho, Chi Pui, 2016. "Industrious Selection: Explaining Five Revolutions and Two Divergences in Eurasian Economic History within a Unified Growth Framework," MPRA Paper 73862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peretto, Pietro F., 2015. "From Smith to Schumpeter: A theory of take-off and convergence to sustained growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodriguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2020. "Growth, War, and Pandemics: Europe in the Very Long-run," CEPR Discussion Papers 14816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Alexandra M. de Pleijt, 2018. "Human capital formation in the long run: evidence from average years of schooling in England, 1300–1900," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 12(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime & Rodrigues, Lisbeth, 2023. "Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Alexandra M. de Pleijt & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2016. "Accounting for the “Little Divergence”: What drove economic growth in pre-industrial Europe, 1300–1800?," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 20(4), pages 387-409.
    12. Madsen, Jakob & Strulik, Holger, 2024. "Inequality and the Industrial Revolution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. James Foreman‐Peck & Peng Zhou, 2018. "Late marriage as a contributor to the industrial revolution in England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1073-1099, November.
    14. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    15. Broadberry Stephen, 2012. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Very Long Run Growth: A Historical Appraisal," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 53(1), pages 277-306, May.
    16. Carlos J. Charotti & Nuno Palma & João Pereira dos Santos, 2022. "American Treasure and the Decline of Spain," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2201, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Jakob Brochner Madsen, 2016. "Human Accomplishment and Growth in Britain since 1270: The Role of Great Scientists and Education," Monash Economics Working Papers 01-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Philip T. Hoffman, 2020. "The Great Divergence: Why Britain Industrialised First," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 126-147, July.
    19. Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2020. "From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1170, June.
    20. Victoria Bateman, 2016. "Women and economic growth: the European marriage pattern in the context of modern day countries," Working Papers 16023, Economic History Society.
    21. Broadberry, Stephen, 2021. "Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market integration;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.