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The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games

Author

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  • Hegarty, Tadgh
  • Whelan, Karl

Abstract

The support of home spectators is one of the contributing factors to the home advantage effect in sports matches. The Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted swiftly to account for a reduced home advantage in both goal difference and the probability of a win. These adjustments proved accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared to suggest a much bigger change in home advantage

Suggested Citation

  • Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2022. "The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 17273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17273
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