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Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets

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  • Caballero, Ricardo
  • Simsek, Alp

Abstract

We build a model in which the Fed and the market disagree about future aggregate demand. The market anticipates monetary policy "mistakes," which affect current demand and induce the Fed to partially accommodate the market's view. The Fed expects to implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change in the Fed's belief provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when the market misinterprets the Fed's belief and overreacts to its announcement. Uncertainty about tantrums motivates further gradualism and communication. Finally, disagreements affect the market's expected inflation and induce a policy trade-off similar to "cost-push" shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14830
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    2. Maximilian Ahrens & Deniz Erdemlioglu & Michael McMahon & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches," Working Papers 2023-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Sep 2024.
    3. Cole, Stephen J. & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Sims, Eric, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers and Research 2023-04, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    4. Florian B¨oser, 2021. "Monetary Policy under Subjective Beliefs of Banks: Optimal Central Bank Collateral Requirements," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/357, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    5. Yang, Jianlei, 2023. "Financial stabilization policy, market sentiment, and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Yang, Jianlei, 2024. "Financial stability policy and downside risk in stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Jia, Pengfei & Shen, Haopeng & Zheng, Shikun, 2023. "Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Han, Zhao, 2024. "Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy and shocks; Belief disagreements; Interest rates; The fed's greenbook projections and the dot plot; Fed belief surprises; Tantrum shocks; Communication; Gradualism; Forward guidance; Cost-push shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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