IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14134.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond Funds and Credit Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Dasgupta, Amil
  • Choi, Jaewon
  • Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy

Abstract

We show that supply side effects arising from the bond holdings of open-end mutual funds affect corporate credit risk through a refinancing channel. In our framework, bond funds exposed to flow-performance relationships become excessively reluctant to refinance bonds of companies with poor cash flow prospects. This lowers refinancing prices, enhancing incentives for strategic default, thus engendering a positive association between bond funds’ presence and credit risk. Empirically, we find that firms with a large share of mutual fund holdings experience increases in CDS spreads, particularly for funds that are more sensitive to flows. We address potential endogeneity issues by using fund acquisitions as exogenous shocks to funds’ flow concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP14134
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    2. Amil Dasgupta & Andrea Prat & Michela Verardo, 2011. "Institutional Trade Persistence and Long‐Term Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 635-653, April.
    3. Schürhoff, Norman & Hendershott, Terrence & Livdan, Dmitry & Li, Dan, 2017. "Relationship Trading in OTC Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2013. "The Evolution of a Financial Crisis: Collapse of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 815-848, June.
    5. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    6. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    7. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    8. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    9. Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2021. "How Much Does Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach [Mutual fund’s R2 as predictor of performance]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1395-1432.
    10. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2012. "The Real Consequences of Market Segmentation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2041-2069.
    11. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2020. "Do fire sales create externalities?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 602-628.
    12. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    13. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2015. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1863-1902, October.
    14. Spiegel, Matthew & Zhang, Hong, 2013. "Mutual fund risk and market share-adjusted fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 506-528.
    15. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2018. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 852-897.
    16. Cai, Fang & Han, Song & Li, Dan & Li, Yi, 2019. "Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 139-167.
    17. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2016. "Liquidity Transformation in Asset Management: Evidence from the Cash Holdings of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 22391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    19. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    20. Nikolova, Stanislava & Wang, Liying & Wu, Juan (Julie), 2020. "Institutional allocations in the primary market for corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 470-490.
    21. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    22. Jarrad Harford & Sandy Klasa & William F. Maxwell, 2014. "Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 975-1012, June.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2012. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1986-2017, August.
    25. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
    26. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    27. Gopalan, Radhakrishnan & Song, Fenghua & Yerramilli, Vijay, 2014. "Debt Maturity Structure and Credit Quality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 817-842, August.
    28. Richard B Evans & Yang Sun & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Models or Stars: The Role of Asset Pricing Models and Heuristics in Investor Risk Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 67-107.
    29. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2013. "Real effects of stock underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 392-408.
    30. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    31. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    32. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    33. Vikas Agarwal & Haibei Zhao, 2019. "Interfund Lending in Mutual Fund Families: Role in Liquidity Management," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 4079-4115.
    34. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    35. Acharya, Viral & Almeida, Heitor & Ippolito, Filippo & Perez, Ander, 2014. "Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 287-319.
    36. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    37. Utpal Bhattacharya & Jung H. Lee & Veronika K. Pool, 2013. "Conflicting Family Values in Mutual Fund Families," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 173-200, February.
    38. Choi, Jaewon & Hackbarth, Dirk & Zechner, Josef, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity profiles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 484-502.
    39. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Nagler, Florian & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2014. "The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 155-177.
    40. Jaewon Choi & Mathias Kronlund, 2018. "Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1930-1965.
    41. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2016. "Liquidity Transformation in Asset Management: Evidence form the Cash Holdings of Mutual Funds," Working Paper Series 2016-05, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    42. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    43. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2016. "Liquidity transformation in asset management: Evidence from the cash holdings of mutual funds," ESRB Working Paper Series 23, European Systemic Risk Board.
    44. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    45. Linlin Ma & Yuehua Tang & Juan‐Pedro Gómez, 2019. "Portfolio Manager Compensation in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 587-638, April.
    46. Viral V. Acharya & Stephen Schaefer & Yili Zhang, 2015. "Liquidity Risk and Correlation Risk: A Clinical Study of the General Motors and Ford Downgrade of May 2005," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-51.
    47. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    48. Joshua D. Rauh & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Capital Structure and Debt Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4242-4280, December.
    49. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    50. Dunhong Jin & Marcin Kacperczyk & Bige Kahraman & Felix Suntheim, 2022. "Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-End Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 1-50.
    51. Mozaffar Khan & Leonid Kogan & George Serafeim, 2012. "Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm-Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1371-1395, August.
    52. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    53. Patricio Valenzuela, 2016. "Rollover Risk and Credit Spreads: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 631-661.
    54. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    55. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2013. "The Maturity Rat Race," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 483-521, April.
    56. Zhu, Qifei, 2021. "Capital supply and corporate bond issuances: Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 551-572.
    57. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    58. Titman, Sheridan, 1992. "Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Financing Choices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1503-1516, September.
    59. Parise, Gianpaolo, 2018. "Threat of entry and debt maturity: Evidence from airlines," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 226-247.
    60. Florian Nagler, 2020. "Yield Spreads and the Corporate Bond Rollover Channel," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 345-379.
    61. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    62. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    63. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Song, Zhaogang, 2017. "The value of trading relations in turbulent times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 266-284.
    64. Richard B Evans & Yang Sun, 2021. "Models or Stars: The Role of Asset Pricing Models and Heuristics in Investor Risk Adjustment [Which factors matter to investors? evidence from mutual fund flows]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 67-107.
    65. Bengt Holmstrom & Joan Ricart i Costa, 1986. "Managerial Incentives and Capital Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 835-860.
    66. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea, 2008. "Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 83-113, November.
    67. Terrence Hendershott & Dan Li & Dmitry Livdan & Norman Schürhoff, 2020. "Relationship Trading in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 683-734, April.
    68. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jannic Cutura & Gianpaolo Parise & Andreas Schrimpf, 2020. "Debt De-risking," BIS Working Papers 868, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Dekker, Lennart, 2024. "Essays on asset liquidity and investment funds," Other publications TiSEM 5fc9bf77-84e7-4a36-9e3a-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Zhu, Qifei, 2021. "Capital supply and corporate bond issuances: Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 551-572.
    4. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Nils Friewald & Florian Nagler & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2287-2329, August.
    6. Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael & Weistroffer, Christian, 2023. "Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 354-380.
    7. Philippe van der Beck & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Dario Villamaina, 2024. "Ponzi Funds," Papers 2405.12768, arXiv.org.
    8. Dekker, Lennart & Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael & Weistroffer, Christian, 2024. "Liquidity buffers and open-end investment funds: Containing outflows or reducing fire sales?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Cai, Fang & Han, Song & Li, Dan & Li, Yi, 2019. "Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 139-167.
    10. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    11. Aragon, George O. & Kim, Min S., 2023. "Fire sale risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 578-609.
    12. Zhiguo He & Paymon Khorrami & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Commonality in Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory and Intermediary Distress," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4630-4673.
    13. Jiang, Hao & Li, Yi & Sun, Zheng & Wang, Ashley, 2022. "Does mutual fund illiquidity introduce fragility into asset prices? Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 277-302.
    14. Grill, Michael & Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael, 2022. "Mutual fund suspensions during the COVID-19 market turmoil - asset liquidity, liquidity management tools and spillover effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    15. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Hoerova, Marie, 2023. "Do non-banks need access to the lender of last resort? Evidence from fund runs," Working Paper Series 2805, European Central Bank.
    16. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    17. Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel, 2020. "Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia," Discussion Papers 38/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Liu, Liang-Chih & Dai, Tian-Shyr & Wang, Chuan-Ju, 2016. "Evaluating corporate bonds and analyzing claim holders’ decisions with complex debt structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 151-174.
    19. Fricke, Daniel & Wilke, Hannes, 2020. "Connected Funds," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224511, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Wang, Z. Jay & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Cross-trading and liquidity management: Evidence from municipal bond funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fund flows; Flow fragility; Career concerns; Bond rollover; Default-liquidity loop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.