IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/13952.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Bengui, Julien
  • Arce, Fernando
  • Bianchi, Javier

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory of foreign reserves as macroprudential policy. We study an open economy model of financial crises, in which pecuniary externalities lead to overborrowing, and show that by accumulating international reserves, the government can achieve the constrained-efficient allocation. The optimal reserve accumulation policy leans against the wind and significantly reduces the exposure to financial crises. The theory is consistent with the joint dynamics of private and official capital flows, both over time and in the cross section, and can quantitatively account for the recent upward trend in international reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Bengui, Julien & Arce, Fernando & Bianchi, Javier, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP13952
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
    3. Manuel Amador & Javier Bianchi & Luigi Bocola & Fabrizio Perri, 2020. "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1605-1645.
    4. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2013. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-j.
    5. Clark, Peter B, 1970. "Optimum International Reserves and the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 356-376, March-Apr.
    6. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    7. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited," NBER Working Papers 22264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Flemming, Jean & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul & Piguillem, Facundo, 2019. "Macro-prudential taxation in good times," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    13. Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 7-42.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    15. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    16. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    18. Luigi Bocola & Guido Lorenzoni, 2020. "Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2524-2557, August.
    19. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    20. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDC's, 1964-1972," UCLA Economics Working Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
    21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jean Flemming & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Facundo Piguillem, 2019. "(Macro) Prudential Taxation of Good News," EIEF Working Papers Series 1909, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2019.
    23. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
    24. Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2022. "Macroprudential policy with leakages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    25. Calvo, Guillermo A., 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1947, Inter-American Development Bank.
    26. Paolo Cavallino, 2019. "Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 127-170, April.
    27. Charles Engel & Kristin Forbes & Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge11-2.
    28. repec:bla:econom:v:50:y:1983:i:199:p:269-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," Working Papers 787, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    3. Davis, J. Scott & Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2023. "Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Lutz, Flora & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Lutz, Flora & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2023. "Sudden stops and reserve accumulation in the presence of international liquidity risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Flora Lutz & Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg, 2019. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," Vienna Economics Papers 1907, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    7. Flora Lutz & Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg, 2019. "Sudden Stops and Reserve Accumulation in the Presence of International Liquidity Risk," Vienna Economics Papers vie1907, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    8. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    9. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    10. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    12. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    13. Samano, Agustin, 2022. "International reserves and central bank independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2022. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 825-851, November.
    15. Kim, Yun Jung, 2017. "Sudden stops, limited enforcement, and optimal reserves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 273-282.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    17. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "A Growth Perspective On Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1358-1379, September.
    18. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "Balance sheet effects, foreign reserves and public policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 146-165.
    20. Corsetti, G. & Maeng, S. H., 2023. "The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2319, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.