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The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

Author

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  • Kose, M. Ayhan
  • Ohnsorge, Franziska
  • Lakatos, Csilla
  • Stocker, Marc

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of the United States in the global economy and examines the extent of global spillovers from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, have effects far beyond its shores. A surge in U.S. growth could provide a significant boost to the global economy. Tightening U.S. financial conditions—whether due to contractionary U.S. monetary policy or other reasons—could reverberate across global financial markets, with adverse effects on some emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on external financing. In addition, lingering uncertainty about the course of U.S. economic policy could have an appreciably negative effect on global growth prospects. While the United States plays a critical role in the world economy, activity in the rest of the world is also important for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Lakatos, Csilla & Stocker, Marc, 2017. "The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 11836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11836
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    3. Ahmad H. Juma’h & Yazan Alnsour, 2018. "Using Social Media Analytics: The Effect of President Trump’s Tweets On Companies’ Performance," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 100-121, March.
    4. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Emerging and Developing Economies : Ten Years After the Global Recession," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9148, The World Bank.
    5. Angelos Kotios & Spyros Roukanas & Emmanouil Karakostas, 2019. "Protectionism or Strengthening Competitiveness: The Case of the United States of America," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(3), pages 21-34, July-Sept.
    6. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2018. "Business cycle narratives," Working Paper 2018/3, Norges Bank.
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 313-340, December.
    8. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    9. Eddie Gerba & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Macro-financial interactions in a changing world," Working Papers 2018, Banco de España.
    10. V. G. Varnavskiy, 2018. "The US Role in the World Manufacturing and Trade as a Global Issue," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies, vol. 11(2).
    11. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Shivani Narayan & Dilip Kumar, 2023. "Systemic Risk Transmission from the United States to Asian Economies During the COVID-19 Period," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 22(1), pages 57-84, March.
    14. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Nahiyan Faisal Azad & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary policy spillovers in emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 664-683, October.
    16. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Salisu, Afees A. & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Out-of-sample predictability of gold market volatility: The role of US Nonfarm Payroll," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 482-488.
    18. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    19. Raymond L. Aor & Afees A. Salisu & Isah J. Okpe, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of the Global Effects of US Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 89-114, December.
    20. Dohyoung Kwon, 2022. "The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1595-1607, April.
    21. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2020. "Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9181, The World Bank.
    22. Apostolos Serletis & Nahiyan Faisal Azad, 2020. "Emerging Market Volatility Spillovers," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 78-87, March.
    23. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer, 2022. "U.S. monetary policy and the predictability of global economic synchronization patterns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 473-492, July.
    24. Kylie Gilbey & Terry Marsh & Sharon Purchase, 2022. "ASX small firm/microcap listings: the IPO ‘Pop’ and two decades of subsequent returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3285-3318, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United states; Uncertainty; Trade; Business cycles; Global economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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