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Reducing Illegal Migrants in the U.S.: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

Author

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  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Martin Johnson
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

We use an economy-wide model to analyze the effects of three broad programs to reduce illegal immigrants in U.S. employment: tighter border security; taxes on employers; and vigorous prosecution of employers. After looking at macroeconomic, industry and occupational effects, we decompose the welfare effect for legal residents into six parts covering changes in: producer surplus and illegal wage rates; skilled employment opportunities for natives; aggregate capital; aggregate legal employment; the terms of trade; and public expenditure. The type of program matters. Our analysis suggests a prima facie case in favor of taxes on employers.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2008. "Reducing Illegal Migrants in the U.S.: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-183, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuela Angelucci, 2012. "US Border Enforcement and the Net Flow of Mexican Illegal Migration," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 311-357.
    2. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Gordon H Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2010. "The Great Mexican Emigration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 798-810, November.
    4. Bohringer, Christoph & Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2005. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-108, January.
    5. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    6. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 2, pages 35-80 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Boeters, Stefan & Böhringer, Christoph & Feil, Michael, 2002. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-39, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bird, R. & Menzies, G. & Dixon, P. & Rimmer, M., 2011. "The economic costs of US stock mispricing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 552-567, July.
    2. Tukker, Arnold, 2008. "EXIOPOL: towards a global Environmentally Extended Input-Output Table," Conference papers 331772, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. James Andrew Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Gerald Anthony Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2015. "A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 243-270, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illegal immigration; dynamic modeling; U S immigration policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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