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El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

Author

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  • Mauricio Cárdenas Santa María
  • Camilo García Jimeno

Abstract

El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el comercio caería en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector económico y encuentran efectos mayores. Además, esta base de datos incluye una medición de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulación e infraestructura. Abstract: The gravity model is a well-known tool in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition, in this database transport costs can bemeasured. The estimated elasticity of imports with respect to thesecosts is -0.5, implying large gains from improvements in regulation andinfrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Cárdenas Santa María & Camilo García Jimeno, 2004. "El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 2527, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Giordano & Norberto Iannelli & Christian Volpe Martincus & Luiz Arruda Villela, 2006. "Colombia: Nota sectorial sobre Comercio e Integración," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9250, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Camilo UMANA DAJUD, 2011. "Una evaluación de la estrategia comercial de Colombia a la luz de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable basado en la ecuación de gravedad," Archivos de Economía 8948, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    3. Jorge Barrientos Marín & Jorge Lotero Contreras, 2011. "Evolución y determinantes de las exportaciones industriales regionales: evidencia empírica para Colombia (1977-2002)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    4. Correia Leite Joao, 2008. "The Determinants of Colombian Exports: An Empirical Analysis Using the Gravity Model," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, April.
    5. Luis Miguel Bolívar Caro & Nataly Cruz García & Andrea Pinto Torres, 2015. "Modelo gravitacional del comercio internacional colombiano, 1991 - 2012," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 9(1), pages 245-270, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo Gravitacional; Comercio Internacional; Costos de Transporte; Acuerdos de Libre Comercio; Sistemas de Preferencias; TLC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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