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Probabilities in Economic Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Itzhak Gilboa
  • Andrew Postlewaite
  • David Schmeidler

Abstract

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help up characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.
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Suggested Citation

  • Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2008. "Probabilities in Economic Modelling," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001976, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:122247000000001976
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 7, pages 169-184, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 3, pages 33-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Gilboa,Itzhak & Schmeidler,David, 2001. "A Theory of Case-Based Decisions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802345, October.
    4. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief Or: Why Savage's axioms are neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Jan 2007.
    5. Enriqueta Aragones & Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Fact-Free Learning," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 8, pages 185-210, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief Or: Why Savage's axioms are neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Jan 2007.
    7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
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    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
    15. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
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    17. Karni, Edi & Postlewaite, Andrew, 2005. "David Schmeidler," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-2, January.
    18. Karni, Edi, 1999. "Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities When Preferences Are State-Dependent," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 479-486, May.
    19. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Itzhak Gilboa, 2010. "Questions in Decision Theory," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, September.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Oxoby, Robert J., 2014. "Social inference and occupational choice: Type-based beliefs in a Bayesian model of class formation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 30-37.
    5. Patra, Sudip, 2019. "A quantum framework for economic science: New directions," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Berg, Nathan & Biele, Guido & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2010. "Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA," MPRA Paper 26590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iepso50rh is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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