IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cii/cepidt/2024-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

UIP Deviations in Times of Uncertainty: Not all Countries Behave Alike

Author

Listed:
  • Purva Gole
  • Erica Perego
  • Camelia Turcu

Abstract

In this paper, we reconsider the role of uncertainty in explaining uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviations by focusing on 60 emerging and developing (EMDE) and advanced (AE) economies, over the period 1995M1--2023M3. We show that differentiating between EMDE currencies and AE currencies is crucial for understanding UIP deviations as the behaviour of excess returns differs in the two groups in periods of uncertainty: deviations become wider for EMDEs and narrow for AEs. These new results are consistent with the idea that in periods of uncertainty, global investors might change their risk preferences and move from high currency-risk investments in EMDEs towards less risky ones in AEs. This evidence holds for both the short-run and long-run UIP, and becomes stronger since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Suggested Citation

  • Purva Gole & Erica Perego & Camelia Turcu, 2024. "UIP Deviations in Times of Uncertainty: Not all Countries Behave Alike," Working Papers 2024-09, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    2. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    4. Ismailov, Adilzhan & Rossi, Barbara, 2018. "Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 242-259.
    5. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    6. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    7. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Liliana Varela, 2021. "Five Facts about the UIP Premium," NBER Working Papers 28923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    12. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    13. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2018. "Uncertainty, currency excess returns, and risk reversals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 228-241.
    14. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    15. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2024. "UIP deviations: Insights from event studies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    16. Uluc Aysun & Sanglim Lee, 2013. "The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    2. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Janus, Jakub, 2021. "Does the interest parity puzzle hold for Central and Eastern European economies?," MPRA Paper 107558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    4. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Jakub Janus, 2024. "Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 421-456, July.
    5. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold After All?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 49-72, July-Dec.
    6. Su, Zhi & Mo, Xuan & Yin, Libo, 2021. "Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and the global financial crisis: Fundamental versus technical information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-89.
    8. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    9. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2018. "Uncertainty, currency excess returns, and risk reversals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 228-241.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    11. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
    13. N.R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones, 2019. "Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition: How Are They Related?," Working Papers 156, Peruvian Economic Association.
    14. Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade: Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    16. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2019. "Financial vs. Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 297-318, April.
    18. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    19. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2007. "Price‐Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross‐Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 419-444, October.
    20. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1778z416, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Risk Premia; Emerging Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.