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House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence From Property Tax Variations

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  • François Geerolf
  • Thomas Grjebine

Abstract

We study the causal link between house prices and current accounts. Across time and countries, we find a very large and significant impact of house prices on current accounts. In order to rule out endogeneity concerns, we instrument house prices for a panel of countries, using property tax variations. A 10% instrumented appreciation in house prices leads to a deterioration in the current account of 1.7% of GDP. These results are very robust to the inclusion of the determinants of current accounts. Following a house price increase, private savings decrease, through wealth effects rather than consumer-finance based mechanisms, while non-residential investment rises through a relaxation of financing constraints for firms.

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  • François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2013. "House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence From Property Tax Variations," Working Papers 2013-18, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-18
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sophie Piton, 2018. "Do Unit Labor Costs Matter? A Decomposition Exercise on European Data," PSE Working Papers halshs-01785345, HAL.
    3. Monnet, Eric & Wolf , Clara, 2017. "Demographic cycles, migration and housing investment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-49.
    4. Irina-Marilena, Ban, 2022. "Introducing house prices to the intertemporal current account model: An application to the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2019. "The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-37, February.
    6. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2019. "Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 1061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    9. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    10. Sophie Piton, 2017. "Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience," 2017 Papers ppi361, Job Market Papers.
    11. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2014. "Assessing House Price Effects on Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers 2014-25, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current accounts;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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