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Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

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  • Osea Giuntella
  • Lorenzo Rotunno
  • Luca Stella

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9755, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9755
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    Cited by:

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    2. Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor & Levell, Peter & Parey, Matthias, 2023. "Household Responses to Trade Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 16032, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Mansour Hani & Medina Pamela & Velásquez Andrea, 2023. "When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 385-412, December.
    4. Ngoc, Pham Phuong & Lee, Hanol & Wie, Dainn, 2024. "Trade liberalization and women's marriage and fertility decisions in Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1071-1082.
    5. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    6. Anna Matysiak & Daniela Bellani & Honorata Bogusz, 2023. "Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-36, December.
    7. Wei Luo & Xianqiang Zou, 2024. "Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-31, September.
    8. Pham Phuong Ngoc & Dainn Wie & Hanol Lee, 2024. "The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Women’s Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalization; labor market outcomes; fertility; marriage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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