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Optimal Stopping in a Dynamic Salience Model

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt
  • Jonas Frey

Abstract

We study dynamic choice under risk through the lens of salience theory. We derive predictions on salient thinkers’ gambling decisions and strategy choices. We test our model experimentally and find support for all of our predictions. We also detect a strong correlation between static and dynamic choices, suggesting that salience theory can coherently explain risky choice in both static and dynamic contexts. Our results help to understand when people sell assets, stop gambling, enter the job market or retire.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Jonas Frey, 2020. "Optimal Stopping in a Dynamic Salience Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8496, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8496
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8496.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence From the Lab and Field," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_274, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Antler, Yair & Arad, Ayala, 2021. "An Experimental Analysis of the Prize-Probability Tradeoff in Stopping Problems," CEPR Discussion Papers 15973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    salience theory; skewness seeking; behavioural stopping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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