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The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy

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  • Christian Bayer
  • Benjamin Born
  • Ralph Luetticke

Abstract

We provide evidence that expansionary fiscal policy lowers the return difference between more and less liquid assets—the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. In this environment, the short-run fiscal multiplier is amplified by the countercyclical liquidity premium. This liquidity channel stabilizes investment and crowds in consumption. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt, and find a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, increasing the fiscal burden of debt, but little crowding out of capital.

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  • Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke, 2020. "The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8374, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8374
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    5. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    8. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with preference over safe assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. Yu-Ting Chiang & Piotr Żoch, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Demand: A Sufficient Statistics Approach," Working Papers 2022-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 26 Jul 2023.
    11. Cristiano Cantore & Edoardo Leonardi, 2024. "Monetary-Fiscal Interaction and the Liquidity of Government Debt," Discussion Papers 2406, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Jochen Mankart & Romanos Priftis & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "The long and short of financing government spending," Working Paper Research 418, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    15. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
    16. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2115, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    17. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    18. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Müller, Georg & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers within the euro area in the context of sovereign risk and bank fragility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    18. Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "The Fiscal Multiplier," 2017 Meeting Papers 1383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; liquidity premium; business cycles; Bayesian estimation; incomplete markets; HANK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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