IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7595.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who cares? Future sea-level-rise and house prices

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Filippova
  • Cuong Nguyen
  • Ilan Noy
  • Michael Rehm

Abstract

Globally, the single-most observable, predictable, and certain impact of climate change is sea level rise. Using a case study from the Kapiti Coast District in New Zealand, we pose a simple question: Do people factor in the warnings provided by scientists and governments about the risk of sea-level rise when making their investment decisions? We examine the single most important financial decision that most people make – purchasing a home, to see whether prices of coastal property change when more/less information becomes available about property-specific consequences of future sea level rise. The Kapiti Coast District Council published detailed projected erosion risk maps for the district’s coastline in 2012 and was forced to remove them by the courts in 2014. About 1,800 properties were affected. We estimate the impact of this information on home prices using data from all real estate transactions in the district with a difference-in-differences framework embedded in a hedonic pricing model. We find that the posting of this information had a very small and statistically insignificant impact on house prices, suggesting people do not care much about the long-term risks of sea-level rise as they do not incorporate these risks in their investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2019. "Who cares? Future sea-level-rise and house prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 7595, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7595.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Walsh & Charles Griffiths & Dennis Guignet & Heather Klemick, 2019. "Adaptation, Sea Level Rise, and Property Prices in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 95(1), pages 19-34.
    2. Paul Frijters & Benno Torgler & Darshana Rajapaksa & Clevo Wilson & Shunsuke Managi & Vincent Hoang & Boon Lee, 2016. "Flood Risk Information, Actual Floods and Property Values: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92, pages 52-67, June.
    3. Levente Timar & Arthur Grimes & Richard Fabling, 2014. "That Sinking Feeling: The Changing Price of Disaster Risk Following an Earthquake," Working Papers 14_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    4. Richard Tol, 2007. "The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 741-753, June.
    5. Athanasios Votsis & Adriaan Perrels, 2016. "Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis in Finland," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 450-471, November.
    6. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    7. Laura A. Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2017. "Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?," NBER Working Papers 23854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Okmyung Bin & Thomas W. Crawford & Jamie B. Kruse & Craig E. Landry, 2008. "Viewscapes and Flood Hazard: Coastal Housing Market Response to Amenities and Risk," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(3), pages 434-448.
    9. Okmyung Bin & Ben Poulter & Christopher F. Dumas & John C. Whitehead, 2011. "Measuring The Impact Of Sea‐Level Rise On Coastal Real Estate: A Hedonic Property Model Approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 751-767, October.
    10. Yohe Gary & Neumann James & Ameden Holly, 1995. "Assessing the Economic Cost of Greenhouse-Induced Sea Level Rise: Methods and Application in Support of a National Survey," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 78-97, November.
    11. Michael, Jeffrey A., 2007. "Episodic flooding and the cost of sea-level rise," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 149-159, June.
    12. Alicia N. Rambaldi & K. Renuka Ganegodage & Cameron S. Fletcher & Felix Lipkin, 2014. "Inundation and Views in Coastal Residential Property Values. Does the Sale Price Reflect the Trade Off?," Discussion Papers Series 536, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Elizabeth Kendall, 2016. "New Zealand house prices: a historical perspective," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-14, January.
    14. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira & Warren Kriesel, 2013. "Forgetting the Flood? An Analysis of the Flood Risk Discount over Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 577-596.
    15. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
    16. Levente Timar & Arthur Grimes & Richard Fabling, 2018. "Before a Fall: Impacts of Earthquake Regulation on Commercial Buildings," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 73-90, April.
    17. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2015. "Editor's Choice Very Long-Run Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 1-53.
    18. David Fleming & Ilan Noy & Jacob Pastor-Paz & Sally Owen, 2018. "Public insurance and climate change (part one): Past trends in weather-related insurance in New Zealand," Working Papers 18_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    19. Samarasinghe, Oshadhi & Sharp, Basil, 2010. "Flood prone risk and amenity values: a spatial hedonic analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-19.
    20. Hidano, Noboru & Hoshino, Tadao & Sugiura, Ayako, 2015. "The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: Evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 113-122.
    21. Deng, Guoying & Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2015. "Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-89.
    22. Oshadhi Samarasinghe & Basil Sharp, 2010. "Flood prone risk and amenity values: a spatial hedonic analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 457-475, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hashida, Yukiko & Dundas, Steven J., 2023. "The effects of a voluntary property buyout and acquisition program on coastal housing markets: Evidence from New York," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Celso Brunetti & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2024. "Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 30(1), pages 1-37, October.
    3. Craig E. Landry & Dylan Turner & Tom Allen, 2022. "Hedonic property prices and coastal beach width," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1373-1392, September.
    4. Parton, Lee C. & Dundas, Steven J., 2020. "Fall in the sea, eventually? A green paradox in climate adaptation for coastal housing markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. F. Marta L. Di Lascio & Ilan Noy & Selene Perazzini, 2022. "Modelling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: a mixed-effects analysis," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS98, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    6. Melissa Chow & Jordan Stanley, 2020. "A Shore Thing: Post-Hurricane Outcomes for Businesses in Coastal Areas," Working Papers 20-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    8. Fang Wei & Lvwang Zhao, 2022. "The Effect of Flood Risk on Residential Land Prices," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Kevin T. Smiley & Ilan Noy & Michael F. Wehner & Dave Frame & Christopher C. Sampson & Oliver E. J. Wing, 2022. "Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Chen, Sicen & Liu, Siyi & Zhang, Junsheng & Zhang, Pengdong, 2023. "The effect of extreme rainfall on corporate financing policies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 670-685.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2020. "Who Cares? Future Sea Level Rise and House Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-224.
    2. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Netusil, Noelwah R. & Moeltner, Klaus & Jarrad, Maya, 2019. "Floodplain designation and property sale prices in an urban watershed," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Nori Tarui & Seth Urbanski & Quang Loc Lam & Makena Coffman & Conrad Newfield, 2023. "Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    6. Allan Beltrán & David Maddison & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2018. "Assessing the Economic Benefits of Flood Defenses: A Repeat‐Sales Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2340-2367, November.
    7. José Armando Cobián Álvarez & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2019. "The cost of floods in developing countries’ megacities: a hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market, Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(4), pages 555-577, October.
    8. Patrick Doupe & Leo Dobes & Frank Jotzo, 2019. "Improving Understanding of Flood Risk: the Effects of Lowering the Cost of Accessing Flood Risk Information," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 101-117, July.
    9. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    11. Hein, Walter & Wilson, Clevo & Lee, Boon & Rajapaksa, Darshana & de Moel, Hans & Athukorala, Wasantha & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "Climate change and natural disasters: Government mitigation activities and public property demand response," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 436-443.
    12. Quyen Nguyen & Paul Thorsnes & Ivan Diaz‐Rainey & Antoni Moore & Simon Cox & Leon Stirk‐Wang, 2022. "Price recovery after the flood: risk to residential property values from climate change‐related flooding," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(3), pages 532-560, July.
    13. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    14. Parton, Lee C. & Dundas, Steven J., 2020. "Fall in the sea, eventually? A green paradox in climate adaptation for coastal housing markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Pollack, Adam B. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2022. "Increasing storm risk, structural defense, and house prices in the Florida Keys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Małgorzata Dudzińska & Barbara Prus & Radosław Cellmer & Stanisław Bacior & Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Klimach & Agnieszka Trystuła, 2020. "The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. aus dem Moore, Nils & Brehm, Johannes & Breidenbach, Philipp & Ghosh, Arijit & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Flood risk perception after indirect flooding experience: Null results in the German housing market," Ruhr Economic Papers 976, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Laura A. Bakkensen & Xiaozhou Ding & Lala Ma, 2019. "Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1132-1158, April.
    20. Abbie A. Rogers & Fiona L. Dempster & Jacob I. Hawkins & Robert J. Johnston & Peter C. Boxall & John Rolfe & Marit E. Kragt & Michael P. Burton & David J. Pannell, 2019. "Valuing non-market economic impacts from natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1131-1161, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price; sea level rise; climate change; erosion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.