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Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma

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  • Andreas Steiner
  • Sven Steinkamp
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

In the winter 2011/12 a wave of internal capital flight prompted the ECB to abandon its exit strategy and to announce an unprecedented monetary expansion. We analyze this episode in several dimensions: (i) by providing an event-study analysis covering key variables from national central banks’ balance sheets, (ii) by rationalizing their patterns in a portfolio balance model of the exchange rate, augmented by institutional characteristics of the TARGET2 system, and (iii) by proposing a theory-based index of exchange market pressure within the euro area. We argue that the euro area entails an inherent policy trilemma that makes it prone to speculative attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Steiner & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma," CESifo Working Paper Series 6753, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6753
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    Cited by:

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    2. Stefan Homburg, 2019. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Wu, Bao & Wang, Qi & Fang, Chevy-Hanqing & Tsai, Fu-Sheng & Xia, Yuanze, 2022. "Capital flight for family? Exploring the moderating effects of social connections on capital outflow of family business," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. G. Arghyrou, Michael & Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2024. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Stefan Homburg, 2018. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7343, CESifo.
    9. Lang, Sebastian & Schadner, Wolfgang, 2021. "The trilemma of expansionary monetary policy in the Euro area during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency union; exchange market pressure; policy trilemma; speculative attack; TARGET2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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