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Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?

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  • Toke Aidt
  • Zareh Asatryan
  • Lusine Badalyan
  • Friedrich Heinemann

Abstract

We study the short-run effect of elections on monetary aggregates in a sample of 85 low and middle income democracies (1975-2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard deviation. A similar effect can neither be detected in established OECD democracies nor in other months. We argue that the cycle is related to systemic vote buying which requires significant amounts of cash at election times. The finely timed increase in M1 is consistent with this and it cannot be, fully, accounted for by alternative explanations.

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  • Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2015. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5508, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5508
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    2. Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Electoral cycles in perceived corruption: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 215-224.
    3. Anand Murugesan & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2023. "The Puzzling Practice of Paying “Cash for Votes”," CESifo Working Paper Series 10504, CESifo.
    4. Antonio C. David & Can Sever, 2024. "Electoral cycles in tax reforms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 495-529, August.
    5. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Tricaud, Clemence, 2022. "Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12411, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2017. "Optimal Term Length For An Overconfident Central Banker," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 179-192, March.
    7. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Nuryartono, Nunung, 2021. "Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2024. "Political consequences of (consumer) debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    10. Parrendah Adwoa Kpeli & Günther G. Schulze & Nikita Zakharov, 2024. "Elections and (mis)reporting of COVID-19 mortality," Discussion Paper Series 48 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Apr 2024.
    11. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2022. "Political consequences of consumer debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2020. "A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79, March.
    13. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political business cycles; vote buying; monetary economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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