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Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

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  • Alexander Rathke
  • Samad Sarferaz

Abstract

In the process of economic development economies grow through various regimes, each characterized by different demographic-economic interactions. The changes in these interactions are key elements in different explanations of the escape from Malthusian stagnation. We employ time-varying vector autoregressions, an approach that allows tracking this transition for England in the period between 1541 and 1870. The empirical findings suggest that the link between real wages and population growth was at work until the 19th century. Furthermore, we document changes in the propagation mechanism from real wages on population growth over time that feature prominently in Unified Growth Theory. Most remarkably, in contrast to earlier empirical literature we find strong effects of income on mortality after the 1750s.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," CESifo Working Paper Series 4667, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4667
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    Cited by:

    1. Lüger, Tim, 2018. "A VAR evaluation of classical growth theory," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 231, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    3. Dybowski, T. Philipp, 2015. "Tracing the Role of Foresight on the Effects of U.S. Tax Policy: Evidence from a Time-Varying SVAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    industrial revolution; Malthusian trap; time-varying vector autoregression; Unified Growth Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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