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IMF Surveillance and Financial Markets - A Political Economy Analysis

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  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in the process of re-inventing itself with bilateral and multilateral surveillance emerging as a key function. The paper analyses how IMF surveillance announcements may be influenced by political power that member countries exert at the IMF. First, we analyze the content of Article IV Public Information Notices (PIN), and second, we use the financial market reaction to the release PINs as tools to identify the role of political economy factors for IMF surveillance. For a set of emerging market economies, the paper finds that financial markets react more favorable to PIN releases for politically influential member countries. Moreover, IMF surveillance appears to be systematically more favorable for countries with larger IMF loans outstanding, consistent with the finding in the literature that the IMF may engage in ‘defensive surveillance’.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fratzscher & Julien Reynaud, 2010. "IMF Surveillance and Financial Markets - A Political Economy Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3089, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3089
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    2. Islam, Iyanatul, & Ahmed, Ishraq. & Roy, Rathin. & Ramos, Raquel., 2012. "Macroeconomic policy advice and the Article IV consultations a development perspective," ILO Working Papers 994783713402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Weisbrot, Mark. & Jorgensen, Helene., 2013. "Macroeconomic policy advice and the article IV consultations comparative overview of European Union member states," ILO Working Papers 994855133402676, International Labour Organization.
    4. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Hamza Bennani & Cécile Couharde & Yoan Wallois, 2024. "The effect of IMF communication on government bond markets: insights from sentiment analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(2), pages 615-656, May.
    6. Andreas Fuchs & Kai Gehring, 2017. "The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1386-1423.
    7. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2013. "Growth and energy nexus in Europe revisited: Evidence from a fixed effects political economy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 881-887.
    8. repec:ilo:ilowps:485513 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin F. & Richert, Katharina, 2019. "The political economy of International Finance Corporation lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 242-254.
    10. Lang, Valentin F. & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2018. "Room for discretion? Biased decision-making in international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Cécile Couharde & Hamza Bennani & Yoan Wallois, 2021. "Do IMF Reports Affect Market Expectations ? A Sentiment Analysis Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-6, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Arusha Cooray & Samuel Brazys, 2018. "Nothing to hide: Commitment to, compliance with, and impact of the special data dissemination standard," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 55-77, March.
    13. Axel Dreher & Katharina Michaelowa, 2008. "The political economy of international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 331-334, December.
    14. Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Arusha Cooray, 2015. "Do transparency initiatives work? Assessing the impact of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on data transparency," CAMA Working Papers 2015-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Erasmus Kersting & Christopher Kilby, 2019. "Does the World Bank Move Markets?," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 42, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    16. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF; surveillance; political economy; sovereign spreads; financial markets; emerging market economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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