IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_3025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Immigration, Fertility, and Human Capital: A Model of Economic Decline of the West

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid V. Azarnert

Abstract

I show how the influences of unskilled immigration, differential fertility between immigrants and the local indigenous population, and incentives for investment in human capital combine to predict the decline of the West. In particular, indigenous low-skilled workers lose from unskilled immigration even if the indigenous low-skilled workers do not finance redistribution, do not compete with immigrants in the labor market, and do not compete with immigrants for publicly financed income transfers. For the economy at large, high-fertility unskilled immigrants and a low-fertility indigenous population result in economic decline through reduced human capital accumulation and reduced growth of per-capita output.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid V. Azarnert, 2010. "Immigration, Fertility, and Human Capital: A Model of Economic Decline of the West," CESifo Working Paper Series 3025, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    2. Bauer, Thomas K. & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy, Assimilation of Immigrants and Natives' Sentiments towards Immigrants: Evidence from 12 OECD-Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Dustmann Christian & Preston Ian P, 2007. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    4. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
    5. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Ethnic Capital And Intergenerational Mobility," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 6, pages 107-134, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2006. "Is Immigration Good or Bad for the Economy? Analysis of Attitudinal Responses," Research in Labor Economics, in: The Economics of Immigration and Social Diversity, pages 3-34, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    8. Nannestad, Peter, 2007. "Immigration and welfare states: A survey of 15 years of research," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 512-532, June.
    9. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Welfare Migration: Is the Net Fiscal Burden a Good Measure of its Economic Impact on the Welfare of the Native-Born Population?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 50(4), pages 709-716.
    10. Douglas E. Hyatt & William J. Milne, 1991. "Can Public Policy Affect Fertility?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(1), pages 77-85, March.
    11. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Après nous le Déluge: fertility and the intensity of struggle against immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1339-1349, September.
    12. Omer Moav, 2005. "Cheap Children and the Persistence of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 88-110, January.
    13. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    14. George J. Borjas, 1994. "Long-Run Convergence of Ethnic Skill Differentials: The Children and Grandchildren of the Great Migration," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 47(4), pages 553-573, July.
    15. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-373, April.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    17. Leslie Whittington, 1992. "Taxes and the Family: The impact of the tax exemption for dependents on marital fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(2), pages 215-226, May.
    18. Nannestad, Peter, 2004. "Immigration as a challenge to the Danish welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 755-767, September.
    19. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
    20. Francisco Rivera-Batiz & Myeong-Su Yun & Ira Gang, 2002. "Economic Strain, Ethnic Concentration and Attitudes Towards Foreigners in the European Union," Departmental Working Papers 200214, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    21. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
    22. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2003. "Immigrant Assimilation and Welfare Participation Do Immigrants Assimilate Into or Out of Welfare?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    23. Leonid Azarnert, 2006. "Child mortality, fertility, and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 285-297, June.
    24. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2009. "The dynamics of immigrant welfare and labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(4), pages 941-970, October.
    25. Yann Algan & Christian Dustmann & Albrecht Glitz & Alan Manning, 2010. "The Economic Situation of First and Second-Generation Immigrants in France, Germany and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages 4-30, February.
    26. Regina T. Riphahn, 2003. "Cohort effects in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in Germany: An analysis of census data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 711-737, November.
    27. Nannestad, Peter, 2009. "Unproductive immigrants: A socially optimal policy for rational egalitarians," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 562-566, December.
    28. Audrey Light & Wayne Strayer, 2002. "From Bakke To Hopwood: Does Race Affect College Attendance And Completion?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 34-44, February.
    29. Yona Rubinstein & Daniel Tsiddon, 2004. "Coping with Technological Change: The Role of Ability in Making Inequality so Persistent," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 305-346, September.
    30. Hansen, Jorgen Drud, 2003. "Immigration and income redistribution in welfare states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 735-746, November.
    31. Hillman, Arye L. & Weiss, Avi, 1999. "A theory of permissible illegal immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 585-604, November.
    32. Rubinstein, Y. & Tsiddon, D., 1998. "Coping with Technological Progress: the Role of Ability in Making Inequality so Persistent," Papers 27-98, Tel Aviv.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/536kq4edtr82jqovubq3ttobc5 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Morand, Olivier F, 1999. "Endogenous Fertility, Income Distribution, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 331-349, September.
    35. Junsen Zhang & Jason Quan & Peter van Meerbergen, 1994. "The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 181-201.
    36. Hodler, Roland, 2008. "Leisure and redistribution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 354-363, June.
    37. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    38. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Free education, fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 449-468, March.
    39. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Foreign Aid, Fertility and Human Capital Accumulation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(300), pages 766-781, November.
    40. Riphahn, Regina, 1999. "Immigrant Participation in Social Assistance Programs: Evidence from German Guestworkers," CEPR Discussion Papers 2318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Azarnert, L.V.Leonid V., 2004. "Redistribution, fertility, and growth: The effect of the opportunities abroad," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 785-795, August.
    42. George J. Borjas, 1994. "Long-Run Convergence of Ethnic Skill Differentials," NBER Working Papers 4641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Cigno, Alessandro, 1986. "Fertility and the Tax-Benefit System: A Reconsideration of the Theory of Family Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1035-1051, December.
    44. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Refugee resettlement, redistribution and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 89-98.
    2. Changchang Zhou & Meixu Zhan & Xun An & Xu Huang, 2022. "Social Inclusion Concerning Migrants in Guangzhou City and the Spatial Differentiation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Gaston, Noel & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2013. "International migration and the welfare state revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 90-101.
    4. Magris, Francesco & Russo, Giuseppe, 2016. "Fiscal Revenues and Commitment in Immigration Amnesties," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-90.
    5. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Francesco Chelli & Rosario Turco & Bogdana Nosova & Chara Vavoura & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Economic Downturns, Urban Growth and Suburban Fertility in a Mediterranean Context," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Naiditch, Claire & Vranceanu, Radu, 2010. "Equilibrium migration with invested remittances: The EECA evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 454-474, December.
    7. Janetta Nestorová Dická, 2021. "Demographic Changes in Slovak Roma Communities in the New Millennium," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-26, March.
    8. Zimmermann, Ekkart, 2011. "Globalization and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 152-161.
    9. Ilan Riss, 2016. "Leadership in migration systems: the case of israel," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 14(2), pages 194-211.
    10. Tao Tang & Brayan Tillaguango & Rafael Alvarado & Ximena Songor-Jaramillo & Priscila Méndez & Stefania Pinzón, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the Causal Link between FDI, Globalization and Human Capital: New Empirical Evidence Using Threshold Regressions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-27, July.
    11. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Trade, Luxury Goods, And A Growth-Enhancing Tariff," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1462-1474, September.
    12. Aleksynska, Mariya, 2011. "Civic participation of immigrants in Europe: Assimilation, origin, and destination country effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 566-585, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Refugee resettlement, redistribution and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 89-98.
    2. Giuseppe Russo, 2011. "Voting over selective immigration policies with immigration aversion," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 325-351, December.
    3. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Après nous le Déluge: fertility and the intensity of struggle against immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1339-1349, September.
    4. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2009. "Abortion And Human Capital Accumulation: A Contribution To The Understanding Of The Gender Gap In Education," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 559-579, November.
    5. Noel Gaston & Douglas R. Nelson, 2013. "Bridging Trade Theory And Labour Econometrics: The Effects Of International Migration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 98-139, February.
    6. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," Working Papers gueconwpa~06-06-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    7. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Thitima Puttitanun, 2011. "Gender Differences In Native Preferences Toward Undocumented And Legal Immigration: Evidence From San Diego," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 31-45, January.
    8. Lena Calahorrano, 2011. "Population Aging and Individual Attitudes toward Immigration: Disentangling Age, Cohort and Time Effects," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 389, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Free education, fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 449-468, March.
    10. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2009. "Foreign Aid, Fertility and Population Growth:Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 2009-12, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    11. Gaston, Noel & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2013. "International migration and the welfare state revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 90-101.
    12. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    13. Azarnert, L.V.Leonid V., 2004. "Redistribution, fertility, and growth: The effect of the opportunities abroad," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 785-795, August.
    14. Brenner, Jan & Fertig, Michael, 2006. "Identifying the Determinants of Attitudes towards Immigrants: A Structural Cross-Country Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2306, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Involuntary Integration in Public Education, Fertility and Human Capital," Working Papers 2008-07, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    16. Aleksynska, Mariya, 2011. "Relative deprivation, relative satisfaction, and attitudes towards immigrants: Evidence from Ukraine," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 189-207, June.
    17. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2014. "Integrated public education, fertility and human capital," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 166-180, April.
    18. Esra Karapınar Kocağ & Simonetta Longhi, 2022. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigration in Turkey: Evidence from the European Social Survey," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
    20. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2009. "The Political Economy of Immigration Policy," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-03, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Apr 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; redistribution; ethnic diversity; fertility; human capital; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.