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Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence against the popular perception that macro volatility is exogenous. We obtain tax effects on macro aggregates in the stochastic neoclassical model. Taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without affecting the first moment. Exploiting heterogeneity patterns in a panel of OECD countries, we estimate tax effects on macro volatility, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between taxes and output volatility. Accounting for non-stationarity of taxes and output volatility, we find empirical evidence of a cointegrating relationship.

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  • Olaf Posch, 2009. "Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 2751, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2751
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
    3. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    4. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Yu‐Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 290-317, July.
    6. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    7. Rieth, Malte & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria-Grazia, 2016. "Personal income tax progressivity and output volatility: Evidence from OECD countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 968-996.
    8. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    9. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    10. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    12. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
    13. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Olaf POSCH & Klaus WALDE, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2009025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 331-368, April.
    16. Wan, Jing & Zhang, Jie, 2021. "Optimal growth through innovation, investment, and labor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Ferraro, Domenico, 2017. "Volatility and slow technology diffusion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 18-37.
    18. Kenc, Turalay & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2024. "Global corporate tax policy space," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    19. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    20. Jing Wan & Jie Zhang, 2023. "R&D subsidies, income taxes, and growth through cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 827-866, October.
    21. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Nicolae Bogdan Ianc, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Fdi And Macroeconomic Stabilization," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 18, pages 131-146, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic volatility; tax effects; continuous-time DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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