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Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns

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  • Mykola Babiak
  • Jozef Barunik

Abstract

We study dynamic portfolio choice of a long-horizon investor who uses deep learning methods to predict equity returns when forming optimal portfolios. Our results show statistically and economically significant benefits from using deep learning to form optimal portfolios through certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios. Return predictability via deep learning also generates substantially improved portfolio performance across different subsamples, particularly during recessionary periods. These gains are robust to including transaction costs, short-selling and borrowing constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp677, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp677
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Weidong & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2024. "Portfolio selection under non-gaussianity and systemic risk: A machine learning based forecasting approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1179-1188.
    2. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2022. "Learning Probability Distributions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Papers 2204.06848, arXiv.org.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Goebel, 2023. "Maximally Machine-Learnable Portfolios," Papers 2306.05568, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2023. "Maximally Machine-Learnable Portfolios," Working Papers 23-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Apr 2023.
    5. Zhenning Hong & Ruyan Tian & Qing Yang & Weiliang Yao & Tingting Ye & Liangliang Zhang, 2021. "Asset Allocation via Machine Learning," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, November.
    6. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "Portfolio management with big data," Working Papers wp2024_2411, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    return predictability; portfolio allocation; machine learning; neural networks; empirical asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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