Ciclos econômicos e a composição da pobreza no Brasil: uma análise para as décadas recentes

This work assesses the impact of macroeconomic cycles on poverty composition in the Brazilian economy (1987 – 2005). Specifically, it intends to find answers to three questions: first, who are the demographic groups that are most harmed in the recessive cycles; second, if economic growth in itself sufficient to benefit the groups most associated with poverty; third, which are the macroeconomic policies most associated with poverty and with its alleviation. The study used an interaction of micro data form PNAD with macroeconomic data from sources such as IPEA-DATA, Brazilian Central Bank and Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil. Using logistical regressions with pooled micro-data banks, the work found two main results. First, recession and economic downturns, are more harmful to people with less schooling. Second, tax policy significantly affects poverty: firstly the primary surplus is associated with lower levels of well-being of the population and, on the other hand, the welfare expenditure of the Union may be used to alleviate poverty during the critical stages of the cycles.