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Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion Among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

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  • Ambra Poggi
  • Xavier Ramos

Abstract

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).

Suggested Citation

  • Ambra Poggi & Xavier Ramos, 2007. "Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion Among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 59, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Vito Peragine, 2007. "Deprivation and Social Exclusion," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 777-803, November.
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    8. Tsakloglou, Panos & Papadopoulos, Fotis, 2001. "Identifying Population Groups at High Risk of Social Exclusion: Evidence from the ECHP," IZA Discussion Papers 392, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Ambra Poggi, 2003. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," Working Papers wpdea0308, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    10. Stephen Nickell, 2004. "Poverty And Worklessness In Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages 1-25, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Pollak & Bernard Gazier, 2008. "L'apport des analyses longitudinales dans la connaissance des phénomènes de pauvreté et d'exclusion sociale : un survey de la littérature étrangère," Post-Print hal-00393322, HAL.
    2. Francesco Devicienti & Ambra Poggi, 2011. "Poverty and social exclusion: two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3549-3571.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deprivation; social exclusion; contagion models; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; metropolis-Hastings algorithm; stochastic models; propensity score.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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