Predictors of School Exclusion in New Zealand: The Implications for Pacific Learners Receiving English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) Support

This study analysed a cohort of over 43,000 students from their first day of school in 2008 to the end of their compulsory schooling in New Zealand in 2018. Data was collected from a range of linked national datasets collated by Stats NZ, New Zealand's official data agency. Variables were categorised into demographic, socioeconomic status (SES), learning support, family climate and parental education categories. These categories and the variables within them were identified in a review of the school exclusion literature. Pacific learners, a group over-represented in school exclusion rates in New Zealand were compared to Pākehā (New Zealand European) learners. Regression analysis established that once variables identified in the literature were accounted for, there was no significant difference in rates of exclusion between Pacific and Pākehā learners. One of the key explanatory variables for the higher rates of Pacific learner school exclusion is receiving English for speakers of other languages (ESOL) support. In this research, receiving ESOL support is suggested to be a proxy for identifying a student with language difficulties. The level of ESOL funding provided to schools, as well as how the funding is applied within each school to address ESOL Pacific learner needs is then discussed.