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Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain

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Abstract

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of indicators that were constructed at the time. We proceed to illustrate how the new data can contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the 1930s and have also used the series to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the 1930s and the post-war period.

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  • Mitchell, J. & Solomou, S. & Weale, M., 2009. "Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0949, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0949
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    1. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non‐linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300, April.
    2. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1996. "UK national income, 1920-1938: the implications of balanced estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 101-115, February.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    4. Solomou, Solomos & Vartis, Dimitris, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates in Britain, 1920 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 850-859, September.
    5. Foreman-Peck, James & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue, 2000. "A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 515-544, December.
    6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    7. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    9. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    10. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1993. "Balanced Estimates of National Accounts When Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The Uk, 1920–38," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(1), pages 89-105, January.
    11. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-481, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic History; National Accounts; Monthly GDP Data; Great Depression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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