IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/btx/wpaper/1322.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital tax reform and the real economy: the effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut

Author

Listed:
  • Danny Yagan

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

Policymakers frequently propose to use capital tax reform to stimulate investment and increase labour earnings. This paper tests for such real impacts of the 2003 dividend tax cut? one of the largest reforms ever to a U.S. capital tax rate? using a quasi-experimental design and a large sample of U.S. corporate tax returns from years 1996-2008. I estimate that the tax cut caused zero change in corporate investment, with an upper bound elasticity with respect to one minus the top statutory tax rate of .08 and an upper bound effect size of .03 standard deviations. This null result is robust across speci?cations, samples, and investment measures. I similarly fi?nd no impact on employee compensation. The lack of detectable real effects contrasts with an immediate impact on ?financial payouts to shareholders. Economically, the ?findings challenge leading estimates of the cost-of-capital elasticity of investment, or undermine models in which dividend tax reforms affect the cost of capital. Either way, it may be difficult for policymakers to implement an alternative dividend tax cut that has substantially larger near-term effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Danny Yagan, 2013. "Capital tax reform and the real economy: the effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut," Working Papers 1322, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    • Handle: RePEc:btx:wpaper:1322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Business_Taxation/Docs/Publications/Working_Papers/Series_13/WP1322.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343, Elsevier.
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    3. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    4. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    5. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    6. Skinner, Douglas J., 2008. "The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 582-609, March.
    7. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    8. Auerbach, Alan J, 1989. "Tax Reform and Adjustment Costs: The Impact on Investment and Market Value," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 939-962, November.
    9. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Nathaniel Hilger & Emmanuel Saez & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Danny Yagan, 2011. "How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from Project Star," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1593-1660.
    10. Jeffrey R. Brown & Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1935-1965, August.
    11. Eisner, Robert, 1970. "Tax Policy and Investment Behavior: Further Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 746-752, September.
    12. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    13. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    14. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin, 1992. "Tax policy and business fixed investment in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 141-170, March.
    15. Eisner, Robert, 1969. "Tax Policy and Investment Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 379-388, June.
    16. M. S. Feldstein, 1970. "Corporate Taxation and Dividend Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(1), pages 57-72.
    17. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2014. "Do financial frictions amplify fiscal policy? Evidence from business investment stimulus," Working Papers 1415, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    18. Jesse Edgerton, 2013. "Four facts about dividend payouts and the 2003 tax cut," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 769-784, October.
    19. Jennifer Blouin & Jana Raedy & Douglas Shackelford, 2010. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and Tax Clienteles: Evidence from the 2003 Reductions in Shareholder Taxes," NBER Working Papers 16129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, and the Supply of Capital Goods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 121-148.
    21. Cohen, Darrel S. & Hansen, Dorthe-Pernille & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "The Effects of Temporary Partial Expensing on Investment Incentives in the United States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 457-466, September.
    22. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    2. Jesse Edgerton, 2013. "Four facts about dividend payouts and the 2003 tax cut," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 769-784, October.
    3. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Roy Zilberman, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 409-448.
    4. Sebastian Eichfelder & Kerstin Schneider, 2014. "Tax Incentives and Business Investment: Evidence from German Bonus Depreciation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4805, CESifo.
    5. Jacob, Martin & Alstadsæter, Annette, 2013. "Payout policies of privately held firms: Flexibility and the role of income taxes," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 152, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    6. Harju, Jarkko & Koivisto, Aliisa & Matikka, Tuomas, 2022. "The effects of corporate taxes on small firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Maier, Christoph & Schanz, Deborah, 2017. "Towards neutral distribution taxes and vanishing tax effects in the European Union," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 215, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Walch, Florian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2011. "Tax Losses and Firm Investment: Evidence from Tax Statistics," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48699, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Booth, Laurence & Zhou, Jun, 2017. "Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Boie-Wegener, Matti & Koch, Reinald & Oestreicher, Andreas & Schön, Lena, 2024. "Die fiskalische Wirkung von Steuersatzsenkungen, Abschreibungsvergünstigungen und Investitionsprämien in Krisenzeiten: Eine quantitative Analyse in Bezug auf deutsche Kapitalgesellschaften," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Darrel Cohen & Jason G. Cummins, 2006. "A retrospective evaluation of the effects of temporary partial expensing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Chay, J.B. & Chong, Byung-Uk & Im, Hyun Joong, 2023. "Dividend taxes and investment efficiency: Evidence from the 2003 U.S. personal taxation reform," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    13. Hines, James R. & Park, Jongsang, 2019. "Investment ramifications of distortionary tax subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 36-51.
    14. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Knaisch, Jonas & Schneider, Kerstin, 2023. "How does bonus depreciation affect real investment? Effect size, asset structure, and tax planning," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 278, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    15. Henrekson, Magnus & Sanandaji, Tino, 2016. "Owner-Level Taxes and Business Activity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 12(1), pages 1-94, March.
    16. Christian Keuschnigg & Evelyn Ribi, 2010. "Business Taxation, Corporate Finance and Economic Performance," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-04, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    17. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    18. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Héctor Zárate-Solano & Andrés Camilo Gómez-Molina, 2018. "Elasticidad del ingreso corporativo gravable en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1046, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S. K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence From India's Adoption of a Value‐Added Tax," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 569-602, September.
    20. Marko Koethenbuerger & Michael E Stimmelmayr, 2022. "The Efficiency Costs of Dividend Taxation with Managerial Firms," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1123-1149.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:btx:wpaper:1322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dongxian Guo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbsoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.