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A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?

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  • M. E. Bontempi
  • R. Golinelli
  • M. Squadrani

Abstract

The preliminary evidence in the literature suggests that changes in uncertainty have a role in shaping the U.S. economic cycle. But what is effectively measured by the different available indicators of uncertainty still remains an "uncertain" issue. This paper has two aims: (i) to introduce a new uncertainty indicator (GT) based on Internet searches; and (ii) to compare the main features and the macroeconomic effects of alternative measures of uncertainty, including our own. Results suggest that GT shocks embody timely information about people's perception of uncertainty and, in some cases, earlier than other indexes. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty shocks on output is more influenced by parameter breaks due to insample events than by model specification. The consequence is that an all-comprehensive indicator able to weight different sources of uncertainty is preferable.

Suggested Citation

  • M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1062
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    2. Michael Donadelli & Luca Gerotto & Marcella Lucchetta & Daniela Arzu, 2018. "Migration Fear, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 2018:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    4. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2018. "Relief Rallies after FOMC Announcements as a Resolution of Uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Hantzsche, Arno, 2022. "Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, . "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    8. Gutiérrez, Antonio, 2022. "Movilidad urbana y datos de alta frecuencia [Urban mobility and high frequency data]," MPRA Paper 114854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
    11. Mehwish Aziz Khan & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Measurement of Investor Sentiment and Its Bi-Directional Contemporaneous and Lead–Lag Relationship with Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, credit cards and some internet data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Bibiana Lanzilotta & Gabriela Mordecki & Victoria Umpiérrez, 2018. "Political economic uncertainty in a small & open economy: the case of Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 18-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    15. Alberto Urtasun & Mara Gil & Javier J. Perez, 2017. "Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, and the role of internet search query data," EcoMod2017 10745, EcoMod.
    16. Donadelli, Michael & Gufler, Ivan & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2020. "The macro and asset pricing implications of rising Italian uncertainty: Evidence from a novel news-based macroeconomic policy uncertainty index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    17. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2021. "A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    18. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Hajek, Petr & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2024. "Aversion and ambiguity: On the robustness of the macroeconomic uncertainty measure framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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