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Climate risk and commodity currencies

Author

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  • Felix Kapfhammer
  • Vegard H. Larsen
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

Abstract

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate change transition risk and show that when such risk is high, major commodity currencies experience a persistent depreciation and the relationship between commodity price fluctuations and currencies tends to become weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate risk and commodity currencies," Working Paper 2020/18, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2020_18
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2727312
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    Cited by:

    1. Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S. & Zhang, Philipp, 2023. "Shocks to transition risk," Discussion Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024. "Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Renee van Eyden & Geoffrey Ngene & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Temperature Growth on Real House Price Returns across the US States," Working Papers 202236, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Alina M. Grebenkina, 2023. "Опыт Монетарных Властей По Учету Климатических Рисков," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 26-31, November.
    8. Alina M. Grebenkina, 2023. "Monetary Authorities’ Experience in Considering Climate Risks [Опыт Монетарных Властей По Учету Климатических Рисков]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 26-31, November.
    9. Galina Hale, 2024. "Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 253-291, March.
    10. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Benedictow, Andreas & Hammersland, Roger, 2023. "Transition risk of a petroleum currency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Viktoriia Naboka-Krell, 2023. "Construction and Analysis of Uncertainty Indices based on Multilingual Text Representations," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202310, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Lin Chen & Stephanie Houle, 2023. "Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages," Discussion Papers 2023-8, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; climate; risk; commodities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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